Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s central bank on hold but rates to rise this year Although the Central Bank of Iceland left policy unchanged today, it expressed concern about rising inflation expectations ahead of wage negotiations later this year. So domestic inflationary... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Households holding up well Australian households have been more resilient to low income growth and falling house prices than we expected. After rising by just 0.3% q/q in the first quarter, the solid rises in retail sales in... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Is the Governor warming to the idea of raising rates? Although the Reserve Bank of Australia will once again leave interest rates at 1.5% at the policy meeting on Tuesday 4th September, we sense that Governor Lowe has started to send some subtle signals... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly New franc forecasts, Swedish election heats up The upward pressure on the Swiss franc eased this week and our forecasts for monetary policy in Switzerland suggest that the currency will continue to depreciate against the euro over the next couple... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed ignoring the noise Amid all the political drama of the past week, the clear message from Fed officials is that they remain committed to their plans to continue raising interest rates. That’s unlikely to change until... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly US tariffs, Greece and Italy all pose risks Greece’s exit from its bailout on Monday was widely hailed by European policymakers as a sign of success, but its problems are far from over. Meanwhile, comments from President Trump emphasised that... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ruble hit by sanctions, MNB to change tack The Russian ruble came under pressure this week as investors worried that US sanctions will be ramped up. For now, though, we don’t think that this will have a significant near-term impact on the... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT signals rate hike, Malaysia pushes back on BRI Stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP figures this week and the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) increasingly hawkish rhetoric suggest a 25bp rate hike is likely at its next meeting on 19 th September. However, with... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola turns to IMF, Rand wobbles, Zambia holds rates Few details about Angola’s request for IMF aid have been released, but any deal would boost investor confidence. We revised down our rand/dollar exchange rate forecasts this week. A tweet from... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Where is the Swiss franc headed? Even after its recent rise, we still think that the Swiss franc will weaken against the euro over the coming years as the Swiss National Bank lags the ECB in tightening monetary policy. But sustained... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further slowdown ahead Growth only slowed a touch in Emerging Asia last quarter, but weakening export demand and tighter monetary policy mean that the region’s economies are likely to cool further over the next year or so. 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil & Mexico inflation to head in opposite directions Inflation in both Brazil and Mexico has been a bit higher than we had anticipated over the past few weeks, but we think the broad trend over the next year or so will be up in Brazil, and down in... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Exports still lagging behind global demand The merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a 17-month low of $0.6bn in June, thanks to a 4.1% monthly rise in exports and a small fall in imports. But both moves were largely due to big swings in... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Markets underestimating scope for rate cuts in 2020 Both the consensus and financial markets are coming around to our view that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2020, but we still think they are underestimating how soon and how fast the Fed’s policy... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Markets underestimating scope for rate cuts in 2020 Both the consensus and financial markets are coming around to our view that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2020, but we still think they are underestimating how soon and how fast the Fed’s policy... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump knows he can’t really influence Fed policy President Donald Trump’s recent public criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell is a clever attempt to pre-emptively blame the Fed and its interest rate hikes for any future downturn in the US economy... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
