Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1) & Consumer Confidence (May) With wage growth stuck in the mud at 2.1% in the first quarter and likely to stay there or thereabouts for a while yet, the prospect of an interest rate rise next year has diminished further. It also... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Purchases of government bonds by the Bank of Japan have stabilised over the past six months. But the rate at which its holdings are growing has continued to slow as its bonds are now maturing at a... 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) Policymakers don’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the fact that it accelerated in April nevertheless supports our view that policy tightening is likely this year. A... 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Banks continue to relax lending standards In March, broad money growth slowed a bit in the euro-zone, UK and Japan. Indeed, in the euro-zone it dropped to its slowest rate since the ECB started its Asset Purchase Programme in early 2015... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC unlikely to wait too long After the sea of downbeat economic news in recent weeks, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)’s decision to keep rates unchanged at its meeting in May came as little surprise. Of course, the MPC’s... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from the Q1 GDP figures The batch of preliminary Q1 GDP figures for Emerging Europe due next week should confirm that, while regional growth peaked last year, it remained relatively strong at the start of 2018. The pace of... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1) Hong Kong’s economy expanded last quarter at the fastest pace in nearly seven years. We think GDP growth has now peaked though and will slow over the coming months as headwinds from tightening... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: At least one more rate cut before year-end After cutting its lending rate just a month ago, it was no surprise that the central bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) decided to leave policy on hold today. However, with inflation benign and the economic... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Central Bank of Iceland on hold for now The Central Bank of Iceland is likely to leave policy unchanged next week. But with inflation set to rise, we expect it to raise interest rates later this year. 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: What next for monetary policy post-election While Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left interest rates unchanged at today’s scheduled monetary policy meeting, the outlook for monetary policy has been thrown into considerable uncertainty following... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC to wait for evidence that slowdown is temporary While the MPC thinks that the economy’s slow start to the year should prove temporary, it sees the costs of waiting a few more months to be sure as being relatively low. As a result, we still expect... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: Aggressive tightening cycle unlikely The Philippines central bank (BSP) today hiked its key policy rate from 3.00% to 3.25%, but also left the door open to further rate increases later this year. While we think interest rates will be... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Governor, fresh style, same story While new Governor Adrian Orr’s communication style is clearer and more conversational than his predecessors, the outlook for policy remains much the same. The RBNZ left interest rates at 1.75% and... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Weak Q1 GDP largely due to temporary factors Euro-zone GDP data for Q1 were pretty weak. Indeed, quarterly growth in the euro-zone economy slowed from 0.7% in Q4 to just 0.4%, its weakest rate since Q3 2016. And national data showed that growth... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.) The surge in base pay in March underlines that the tight labour market is now generating noticeable cost pressures. However, it will still take a few more years before wage growth is strong enough to... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank minutes tinged with hawkish comments The minutes to the Riksbank’s April meeting were slightly hawkish and suggest that the Bank is on track to raise interest rates this year. We think that markets have gone too far in pushing the krona... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
