Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jun.) Inflation in Nigeria slowed in June, and we think that it will continue to ease over the coming months. While policymakers will keep their key rate on hold tomorrow, they will probably cut later this... 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP defeats no-confidence vote Prime Minister Modi’s BJP comfortably defeated the vote of no-confidence initiated by opposition parties on Friday. The result isn’t a major surprise given that the BJP holds a majority in the Lok... 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How much longer can QQE remain in place? The BoJ has been able to drastically slow the pace of its acquisition of Japanese Government Bonds since it adopted a 0% yield target, which should quells doubts about the policy’s long-run viability... 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rate hikes coming in the Andes Central banks in Colombia and Chile are set to leave interest rates unchanged at their meetings next week, but we think rates are likely to rise sooner, and a little further, than the markets are... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Positive monthly data, Japan deal not a game-changer Recent euro-zone data releases have generally been encouraging, supporting our view that GDP growth picked up from 0.4% in Q1 to 0.5% in Q2. Meanwhile, the EU-Japan trade deal, signed this week, is... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Strong growth will keep Fed hiking despite Trump The GDP data due next week are likely to show the economy expanding at a solid pace in the second quarter. Uncertainty over trade policy appears to be worrying some firms but, with little sign so far... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC FX policy becoming more hands-on again The People’s Bank appears to be leaning against downward market pressure on the renminbi. But the depreciation it has allowed so far will already provide a cushion for China’s exporters as they face... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook SNB lagging behind in the monetary tightening cycle Economic growth in Switzerland and across the Nordics looks set to remain pretty strong over the coming years. But inflationary pressures vary significantly between countries. We think that central... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Softer data won’t deter MPC The financial markets are probably right to assume that an interest rate rise in August is still more likely than not. Somewhat counterintuitively, lower inflation might make it easier for the MPC to... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Region fares well in Q2, Turkey to hike rates next week Activity data released in Russia, Turkey and Poland suggest that regional GDP growth remained strong at around 4% y/y in Q2. Among a number of monetary policy decisions due next week, we expect Turkey... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s minimum wage policy backfiring The decision earlier this week to raise the hourly minimum wage by a further 11% next year will undermine President Moon Jae-in’s goal to reduce inequality and boost private consumption growth. 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Rebound in S. Africa, new policy worries in Nigeria South African activity data out this week supported our view that the economy strengthened in the middle of Q2. Even so, growth will probably disappoint over 2018 as a whole. Elsewhere, Abuja’s... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The strong labour market and the cautious RBA The financial markets are probably right to assume that the release of June’s bumper labour market figures has increased the chances that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates a bit... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Optimistic but cautious Having announced last month that asset purchases will end in December, the ECB is unlikely to make any policy changes at its July meeting. We doubt that President Draghi will offer more explicit... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional recovery gathering steam The raft of quarterly GDP data released over the past month confirmed that the MENA region rebounded at the start of this year and more timely figures suggest that the recovery is gathering momentum... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA: SARB talks tough, but rate hikes still unlikely South African policymakers adopted even more hawkish language at today’s MPC meeting, but we still doubt that they will hike rates in 2019. The risks to our non-consensus view are, admittedly, growing... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
