Asia Economics Weekly August rate hike in Korea, Indonesia outbreak We were already more hawkish that the consensus in expecting a rate hike in Korea this year, but recent comments by the central bank and strong economic data mean we are shifting forward our forecast... 25th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Recovery takes hold and inflation pressures build Economic activity across Emerging Europe is rebounding strongly now that virus waves have passed and restrictions have been lifted. The recovery in Q2 looks to have been strongest in Russia, Israel... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily BoE policy may ultimately lead to a steeper UK yield curve The yield of 10-year Gilts fell after the Bank of England kept its policy settings and forward guidance unchanged at its meeting today. However, we suspect that if the Bank continues to look through... 24th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Third wave fears grow Worries about a third wave of COVID-19 in the region have intensified in the past month and the tightening of lockdown measures in some countries – most notably South Africa – will weigh on recoveries... 24th June 2021 · 13 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to start to shrink its balance sheet next year After last week’s hawkish shift by the Fed, and the erasure of any doubt about the start of hikes by the Norges Bank, the Riksbank may also pencil a rate hike into its projections next Thursday (1st... 24th June 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics MPC more optimistic, but no more hawkish Other than the Monetary Policy Committee noting the growing upside risks to inflation alongside today’s policy decision, there were no real signs that it is thinking about tightening policy sooner, à... 24th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Higher oil prices to help narrow twin deficits The price of oil has continued to rise and will help to improve balance sheets in the Gulf. With oil prices at $75pb, all Gulf economies with the exceptions of Bahrain and Oman are likely to be... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: rate cuts on the horizon The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today, but with inflation fears receding, more rate cuts to support the beleaguered economy are only a few months... 24th June 2021 · 3 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We still expect higher yields & equity rotation in the US The hawkish surprise delivered by the Fed at its latest meeting and the subsequent market reaction have not changed our view that the 10-year US Treasury yield will end the year higher and that the... 24th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Lasting decline in saving rate would be an upside risk The surge in consumption in Q1 resulted in the savings rate falling to a 15-year low. While we expect households to respond to falling house prices with higher savings, the rebound in GDP could be... 24th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the post-FOMC moves in bond and stock markets As the dust finally begins to settle following last week’s FOMC announcement, we think a couple of significant shifts in market pricing since then merit a closer look. 23rd June 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB starts lift-off, aggressive tightening cycle in store The Czech National Bank (CNB) raised its two-week repo rate by 25bp to 0.50% at today’s meeting and the accompanying communications support our view that this marks the start of what will be the most... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How likely is a hawkish surprise by the ECB? Last week’s surprise change in the Fed’s guidance about how soon it is likely to raise its key policy rate raises the question of whether the ECB will follow suit. In our view, although the euro-zone... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Borrowing costs will remain in check India’s 10-year government bond yields have remained stable at around 6% over the past month, taking the unexpectedly large jump in inflation in May and a more hawkish turn by the US Fed in their... 23rd June 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: policy rate on hold until at least end-2022 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) today left interest rates unchanged at their all-time low of just 0.5%, dovish comments from the press conference support our view that rates will be on hold for a long time... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to start hiking in early-2023 We now expect the unemployment rate to approach 4% by late-2022. Even though the reopening of the border should ameliorate staff shortages a bit next year, we expect wage growth to accelerate markedly... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
