US Economics Update Fed lowers rates by 25bp, but in no rush to cut again The Fed reduced the fed funds rate by 25bp — to between 2.00% and 2.25% — at today’s FOMC meeting, but it was arguably a “hawkish” rather than “dovish” cut, which supports our view that the next... 31st July 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Will the MPC follow the global trend and cut interest rates? There has been mounting speculation that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will join the global loosening cycle by cutting interest rates. We think it will if there is a no deal Brexit. But if there... 31st July 2019 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to take a breather before cutting rates further We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to take a breather and leave rates on hold at 1.0% at its upcoming meeting on Tuesday the 6th of August following the back to back rate cuts in June and July... 31st July 2019 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q2) Underlying inflation remained subdued in the second quarter and we think increasing spare capacity in the Australian economy means it will fall further below the RBA’s 2-3% target over the next year. 31st July 2019 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Under the wings of doves The MPC – now even more firmly under the control of doves following the recent surprise resignation of Viral Acharya – is likely to use the current low rate of headline inflation as justification for... 31st July 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (July) & France GDP (Q2) July’s decline in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is consistent with our view that, after probably slowing to 0.2% q/q in Q2, GDP growth in the currency union will remain subdued over... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Dovish talk but the usual walk The Bank of Japan projected a dovish tone today, promising further easing if needed. But unlike other major central banks the BoJ still seems a long way from following that up with action. We think it... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Falling profitability to weigh on investment The slowdown in domestic economic activity along with global trade tensions is becoming more of a concern for businesses in both countries. That means that sentiment has not been bolstered by the... 30th July 2019 · 10 mins read
US Economics Weekly 25bp rate cut may not go down well in the markets The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting. Despite the stronger-than-expected GDP data released on Friday, however, fed funds futures still put the odds of a larger... 26th July 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Javid to loosen fiscal policy, economy has poor start to Q3 It came as no surprise that Boris Johnson became the UK’s new Prime Minister this week. And in his first speech in Parliament on Thursday there was no sign of him rowing back on his campaign pledges... 26th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank to cut further than most expect The relatively dovish statement accompanying the Russian central bank’s decision to cut the policy rate today supports our view that the easing cycle has a lot further to go. We expect an additional... 26th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly MAS to loosen soon, Malaysia restarts rail project The recent deterioration in the economic data from Singapore adds weight to our view that monetary policy will be loosened before the central bank’s next scheduled meeting in mid-October. Meanwhile... 26th July 2019 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Acharya steps down, labour reform bills tabled Dr Viral Acharya, who stepped down from the MPC this week, was one of the most hawkish members of the committee. As such, his departure boosts the chances of further rate cuts in the near term. But it... 26th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Treasurer unlikely to shift the goal posts The Treasurer is currently reviewing the RBA’s inflation target before he signs the Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy. We doubt there will be any major changes and Governor Lowe gave a... 26th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Dovish ECB paves way for lower rates elsewhere The apparent confirmation this afternoon that the ECB is inching towards loosening policy lends further support to our view that more rate cuts are on the cards in Denmark and Switzerland too. 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB should be ready to act in September The market reaction to today’s ECB press conference suggests that President Draghi was not as dovish as some investors had hoped for. But the big picture is that it seems clear that policy loosening... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
