Capital Daily This may be as good as it gets for the Aussie and Kiwi Although the RBA’s hawkish message today and further strong data out of New Zealand sent the Aussie and Kiwi higher, we are becoming less confident in our existing, bullish forecasts for both... 6th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus The CBDCs are coming We expect some major central banks to issue digital currencies later this decade, with those in countries where cash is rarest proceeding the fastest. The first generation of central bank digital... 6th July 2021 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to hike rates in early-2023 By tapering its bond purchases and watering down its commitment to keep its policy rate unchanged until 2024, the RBA is paving the way for interest rate hikes in 2023. 6th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI withdraws support, but no sign of tightening Israel’s strong economic recovery prompted the central bank to phase out one of its emergency support programmes at today’s meeting and Governor Yaron’s comments suggest that the next step towards... 5th July 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The US dollar rally may have further to run The US dollar is ending the week stronger against most currencies, although it has fallen back a little this afternoon despite the stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls report. While that reaction... 2nd July 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey dollarisation, Ukraine-IMF, Russia & Poland rates Turkey’s central bank took steps this week to tackle deposit dollarisation in the banking sector, although these efforts will fail to make headway in the absence of a stronger commitment to rein in... 2nd July 2021 · 11 mins read
US Economics Weekly Stronger payrolls intensify focus on tapering We aren’t convinced that it will mark the start of a sustained acceleration, but the stronger gain in June payrolls will embolden those Fed officials calling for an earlier end to the Fed’s asset... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Löfven exits the stage (not pursued by a bear) The resignation of Prime Minister Stefan Löfven in Sweden has added to the period of political uncertainty in Sweden. That said, the other leading political actors would probably struggle to pass... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand’s reopening, exports soften Thailand’s tourism sector will remain heavily depressed despite this week’s reopening of Phuket to foreign tourists. Meanwhile, the latest data provide more evidence that export demand has started to... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour shortages to persist Job vacancies have continued to surge in Australia highlighting worsening staff shortages in almost every industry. While subdued labour mobility was an initial driver, we estimate that labour... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rebound underway, but relapse risks grow India’s ferocious second virus wave is subsiding as quickly as it emerged, enabling the recovery to get back on track. However, the rapid scaling back of containment measures that is underway... 1st July 2021 · 19 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Balance sheet reduction to precede hikes in Sweden The Riksbank was always likely to maintain the status quo this morning, but against the backdrop of recent hawkish shifts by other central banks, notably the Fed, the focus was on how its thinking had... 1st July 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Consumer confidence and the US stock market We do not think that the surge in the Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence in June is a reason to be positive about the outlook for the US stock market. 30th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch How will central banks respond to the inflation threat? The rise in inflation and the question of how central banks will respond has dominated headlines over recent weeks. In this Global Central Bank Watch, we set out a framework for thinking about how the... 30th June 2021 · 16 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Virus disruption to continue The virus situation in Emerging Asia has improved compared with a month ago. Although cases are rising sharply in Indonesia, daily numbers have come down in Taiwan, Singapore, India and Malaysia, and... 30th June 2021 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Vaccine campaigns running into supply constraints With the more contagious delta variant spreading in Australia, half of the population is now in lockdown. This highlights the Achilles heel of both countries’ virus management: their slow vaccine... 30th June 2021 · 11 mins read
