BoE Watch Scope for upside surprise to rate expectations It seems almost certain that the MPC will keep interest rates at 0.75% at its next meeting on Thursday 19th September. The minutes may be slightly more hawkish than they were in August. But the... 12th September 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT: more near-term rate cuts, but hikes loom in 2020 The Turkish central bank delivered another larger-than-expected interest rate cut today and we now expect the one-week repo rate to reach a trough at 12.50% (previously 16.00%). But if we’re right in... 12th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia policy rate on hold, cut likely in November The dovish statement which accompanied today’s decision by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to leave its policy rate on hold at 3.00% suggests that the central bank is leaving the door open to further... 12th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank to stick to its guns There are mounting signs that the economy will lose steam over the coming months. But the labour market remains very tight and the Bank remains concerned about the impact of loose policy on financial... 12th September 2019 · 10 mins read
US Economics Update Trump may not like negative rates in practice President Donald Trump’s call for the Fed to slash interest rates to zero or “less”, so that the Treasury can lock-in low borrowing costs for the very long term, sounds appealing in a sustained low... 11th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC downplays talk of tightening The more dovish-than-expected press conference following today’s MPC meeting confirmed that the Polish central bank is placing more weight on concerns about the weak external environment than domestic... 11th September 2019 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Mid-cycle adjustment continues The Fed looks set for another 25bp rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting. The data haven’t yet deteriorated nearly enough to justify a larger 50bp move, although we do expect a further gradual slowdown... 11th September 2019 · 8 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) Monetary easing has so far failed to generate much of a pick-up in credit growth, which remained unchanged last month. This should push policymakers to take further action. 11th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Boost from lower rates starting to feed through The sharp fall in market interest rates over the past 12 months is starting to support the economy, with activity growth in rate-sensitive sectors like durables consumption and housing rebounding in... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Bank ignores rate cut speculation This week the Bank of Canada gave us few hints about the future path of monetary policy. Given further signs that the global economy is loosening momentum, we continue to think that the direction of... 6th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: CBR governor keeps door open to easing Russian central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, used the post-meeting press conference to hint at a possible further rate cut by year-end, supporting our view that the easing cycle has further to... 6th September 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update RRR reduction to be followed by PBOC rate cuts The PBOC will release a portion of the reserves commercial banks’ hold at the central bank. While this will pull down interbank rates in the short run, the PBOC will need to cut its policy rate to... 6th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak consumer confidence, BoJ pre-emptive easing? The recent slump in consumer confidence underlines that consumer spending will fall sharply after October’s sales tax hike. But it doesn’t tell us much about the extent of the slowdown and the fact... 6th September 2019 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in August, due in large part to a renewed pick up in food inflation. But it will remain comfortably below the RBI’s 4.0% target. And given the... 6th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Negative rates: is the cure worse than the disease? Negative policy rates have had some positive effects in the economies where they apply and the direct adverse consequences have been small. But the policy has contributed to a fall in long-term... 5th September 2019 · 24 mins read
ECB Watch Bank to cut deposit rate but wait before starting QE2 After policymakers spelt out in July that they were planning to announce more policy stimulus soon, there is sure to be some action when they meet in Frankfurt next Thursday. We think this will... 5th September 2019 · 8 mins read
