UK Economics Focus Political risks and three big economic trends While it is recognised that political developments, such as a no deal Brexit and a Labour government, have the capacity to send the economy in different directions, it’s not as well known that three... 11th July 2019 · 20 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s pension vote paves way for larger rate cuts The large margin of victory for Brazil’s pension bill in its first vote in the lower house last night is likely to result in a rally in local markets later today, and makes an interest rate cut at the... 11th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Bank’s forecasts show it is becoming more dovish Although the tone of Bank of Canada’s monetary policy statement remained fairly neutral, its updated forecasts suggest that the Bank is losing faith in the economy’s short-term prospects. We continue... 10th July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Powell signals that July rate cut a done deal Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress indicates that, despite the trade truce following the recent G20 meeting and the strength of employment growth in June, the Fed intends to push... 10th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Jun.) The sharp drop in Brazilian inflation to 3.4% in June, which took it below the central bank’s target, suggests that policymakers will soon start to ease monetary policy. Barring any major hiccups with... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Aggressive easing heralds end of housing downturn Australia’s housing downturn will probably come to an end towards the end of the year. That means that the drag from falling housing wealth on consumer spending will subside. It also means that... 10th July 2019 · 22 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: rates left unchanged but further easing likely Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) left interest rates unchanged at 3.0% today, but kept the door open to further easing. With growth set to slow in the second half of the year, we think the central bank... 9th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The implications of the CBRT reshuffle The dismissal of Turkey’s central bank governor over the weekend increases the chances of aggressive cuts in interest rates in the near-term. But it has also raised the risk of larger currency falls... 8th July 2019 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell may temper market expectations of rate cuts The data this week were consistent with a continued slowdown in economic growth, but don’t yet look weak enough to convince the Fed to cut interest rates immediately. We suspect that Chair Jerome... 5th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB won’t be a QE Lagarde this time The continued weakness of the economic data, together with Christine Lagarde’s nomination as the new ECB president, makes us more confident that the Bank will loosen policy in the coming months... 5th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly No more “boring” SNB, Riksbank in denial The Swiss 10-year bond yield dropped to a record low this week, and the prospect of further easing by the Swiss National Bank suggests that the rally has further to run. Meanwhile, although the... 5th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update E-Z government bond yields likely to be low for longer Christine Lagarde’s nomination as ECB President makes us even more optimistic about the near-term outlook for government bonds in the euro-zone and reinforces our view that corporate bonds there will... 5th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines CPI (Jun.) The renewed drop in inflation in June is likely to continue as the headline rate is dragged down by falling food and fuel price inflation, providing a green light for the central bank to cut rates in... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) Broad money growth accelerated to a decade high in May, as past increases in interest rates boosted portfolio demand, but the more recent renewed slump in rates will trigger a slowdown in the second... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s MPC continues to strike a dovish note The relatively dovish stance adopted by Poland’s MPC in the communications accompanying today’s interest rate meeting supports our view that monetary policy settings will be left unchanged until the... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank bucks the dovish trend The decision by the Riksbank to leave its repo rate on hold at -0.25% this morning came as no surprise, but the fact that it left its (in our view) optimistic forecast for interest rates unchanged... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
