Europe Economics Update New ECB boss to be at least as dovish as Draghi Yesterday’s announcement that Christine Lagarde will succeed Mario Draghi leaves us even more confident that the ECB will loosen monetary policy in the coming months. We think the Bank is likely to... 3rd July 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Why ‘yield curve control’ wouldn’t work for the SNB Swiss pension funds and life insurers have been among the losers from negative interest rates, but the SNB is unlikely to follow the Bank of Japan’s example of targeting long-term bond yields to limit... 2nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish shift on Polish MPC won’t result in rate hike A rise in inflation has led five of the ten Polish MPC members to suggest that interest rates may soon need to be raised. But we doubt that any of the five more dovish members, including Governor... 2nd July 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will probably cut rates to 0.5% While the RBA lowered the cash rate to 1.0% at today’s meeting, it signalled that it won’t ease policy any further for now. However, we think that the Bank remains too optimistic about the outlook for... 2nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) India’s manufacturing PMI readings remained consistent with decent output in June but it is unlikely be a barrier to further policy loosening. There is a high chance that a looser fiscal stance will... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss-EU spat boils over; Riksbank to lower rate path The dispute between Switzerland and the EU has shifted up a gear but is unlikely to prevent the Swiss franc from rising further this year. Meanwhile, although the Riksbank looks certain to leave its... 28th June 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly We now expect one extra cut by the RBA & RBNZ Following dovish comments from the RBNZ this week we now expect the Bank to cut rates to 1.0% by the end of the year. Meanwhile, our forecast that the RBA will cut rates to 0.5% by early next year... 28th June 2019 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Fed easing and US equities: lessons from history While the performance of the US stock market in the Fed’s last four easing cycles was varied, our view remains that it will fall in the next one, which we expect to span from late-summer 2019 to... 27th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland to cut further this year Following this morning’s decision by the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to cut its key interest rate by 25bps, we now think that further cuts are in the pipeline. However, to the extent that a rumoured... 26th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Draghi to go out with a bang Recent comments by Mario Draghi suggest that the ECB will loosen policy sooner than we had anticipated. We now expect the Bank to strengthen its forward guidance in July and cut its deposit rate in... 26th June 2019 · 24 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ will probably cut rates to 1.0% The RBNZ’s dovish tone supports our view that the Bank will cut rates again before the year is out. In fact, we now think the Bank will cut at its next meeting in August, and once more at its November... 26th June 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC rate cuts appear imminent The People’s Bank has pushed down overnight interbank rates to multi-year lows. This is partly a response to market jitters following the Baoshang Bank takeover and may partially reverse in the coming... 25th June 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Acharya resignation another blow to RBI credibility The surprise resignation of RBI deputy governor Viral Acharya – one of the most hawkish members of the MPC – boosts the chances of further rate cuts in the near term. But it should once again raise... 25th June 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Tax exemptions, RBI minutes Ahead of the full budget for FY19/20 on 5 th July, the early leaks have focused on potential changes to income taxes. By themselves, these won’t have a material impact on the fiscal position. But they... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA thinks about China slowdown & QE The RBA seems to be getting more concerned about a slowdown in China’s GDP growth and the recent slowdown in visitor arrivals from China will only exacerbate those worries. Meanwhile, Governor Lowe... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles not all to do with the Fed Financial markets have come round rapidly in the last few weeks to our view that EM monetary policy will be loosened further this year. But EM loosening cycles have much more to do with weak domestic... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
