UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Aug.) July’s consumer prices figures confirmed that June’s surprise drop in CPI inflation was just a blip. But the fact that the rise last month was driven by a pick-up in the core rate does not mean that... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation rises, but economic activity is weak China's consumer-price inflation remained high in July, while activity data suggest that growth was sluggish at the start of the third quarter. On the face of it, this poses a dilemma for China's... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s slowing inflation makes another pause probable Slowing inflation in Chile raises the probability of a second successive pause at this month’s monetary policy meeting. What’s more, a weakening external backdrop will make policymakers more reluctant... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Market mayhem sets gloomy backdrop for Inflation Report The mayhem in the markets last week has set a gloomy backdrop for the Bank of England’s Inflation Report published this week. 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s monetary policy experiment gets risky The decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to raise its overnight borrowing rate and cut its benchmark 7-day repo rate could do more harm than good: the rise in the overnight rate risks attracting... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Struggling recovery needs low interest rates The MPC’s decision to re-launch its quantitative easing programme today confirms that the Committee finally recognises that the major threat to the UK is renewed recession, not inflation. But previous... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Should we be worried about sovereign debt in Asia? Emerging Asia is not in any imminent danger of a sovereign-debt crisis: debt levels in most countries are low, while strong growth makes it easier to finance debt burdens. However, another sharp... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.) Pork prices fell in the second half of July. It is too soon to sound the all-clear. But given that consumer price inflation in everything except pork was stable over the first half of the year, this... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Producer Prices (Jun.) The continued slowdown in producer price inflation, combined with July’s unexpected fall in headline consumer price inflation, supports our view that the ECB will probably keep interest rates on hold... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jul.) July’s euro-zone flash consumer prices figures came as something of a pleasant surprise and provide some support for our view that the ECB may not raise interest rates again over the coming months. 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How would China react to a US downgrade? China may be the US government’s largest foreign creditor but it has no better option than to hope for the best and try to calm any market jitters in the event of a US downgrade. 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand’s “insurance cut” to be reversed in September The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has signalled that its policy rate will soon be raised from a post-earthquake emergency level, provided its worst fears for the global economy do not materialise... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update One more rate rise this year in the Philippines The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) kept its overnight rate on hold at 4.5% today, however, it did still tighten monetary policy by raising the reserve requirement ratio. Although inflation is above... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s growth slows, but policymakers will focus on inflation Today’s Q2 GDP data from Korea confirm that the economy grew at a slower pace in the second quarter than it did in the first. Nonetheless, we believe that Korea’s policymakers will continue to focus... 28th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Jul.) & Euro-zone M3 (Jun.) July’s rise in German CPI inflation appears to have been driven by energy prices. Underlying price pressures remain subdued and with the economic recovery already slowing, there is little risk of a... 28th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Interest rates close to peaking Policymakers in most of Latin America’s inflation-targeting countries have begun to signal an end to the current cycle of monetary tightening. In the very near term, we still expect the combination of... 28th July 2011 · 1 min read
