Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan.) Egyptian inflation fell back in January and looks set to ease further over the coming months. Further interest rate cuts are likely this year, but we suspect that the CBE will wait until the effects... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rebased CPI data won’t change the big picture Forthcoming consumer price inflation data for January will be the first in the rebased series but, unlike the recently revised GDP data, we doubt that this will have a spectacular impact on headline... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Inflation fell to a five-year low in January but we don’t think this should spark concerns over impending deflation. The drop was largely due to volatile food prices ahead of Chinese New Year and... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss & Danish CPI (Jan. 15) January’s falls in Swiss and Danish CPI inflation into or further into negative territory highlight the need for central banks to do more to prevent their respective currencies appreciating further... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of the latest currency moves in Central Europe After a year of stability, Central Europe’s currency markets sprung back to life over the past month as the ECB unveiled a QE programme and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to scrap its exchange... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) Mexican inflation fell to a three-and-a-half year low of 3.1% in January and looks set to remain close to the central bank’s 3% target throughout 2015-16. As a result, monetary policy is likely to... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is deflation here to stay this time? The latest bout of deflation in the euro-zone looks set to last rather longer than the brief period of falling prices seen back in 2009. With vast amounts of slack in the economy and inflation... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the economic recovery maintain its pace? The latest news suggests that the economic recovery is getting back on track after a slowdown towards the end of last year. Indeed, we remain optimistic about the growth outlook. 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Turkey Ind. Prod. (Dec.) & Czech CPI (Jan.) The rebound in Turkish industrial production growth to 2.6% y/y in December provides an encouraging sign that the economy may have emerged from its recent slump. But even so, growth over Q4 as a whole... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New Year effect pulls inflation to five-year low We expect consumer price inflation to have fallen to the lowest in more than five years in January, dragged down by further declines in commodity costs and the ususal volatility around Chinese New... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The rise in consumer confidence for the second straight month should be followed by a further improvement as households benefit from lower energy prices. 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Muted productivity growth holding back real wage gains The weakness of wage growth is partly due to the near-stagnation in productivity. Unfortunately, the news last week that non-farm productivity was unchanged over 2014 as a whole, suggests there is... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Carney faces balancing act with Inflation Report Deflation will be the word on everyone’s lips at this week’s Inflation Report press conference. Mr Carney will need to emphasise that the Committee is alert to the risk that deflation becomes... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharp rise in Brazilian inflation to 7.1% last month was driven by a combination of higher food prices, caused by the continuing droughts, and increases in regulated prices as part of the... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey caught in currency crosswinds The fall in the Turkish lira against the US dollar over the past couple of weeks has raised fresh concerns about the country’s relatively high burden of dollar-denominated debt. But at the same time... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Modest recovery continues despite Greek crisis Euro-zone economic activity has continued to recover despite the troubles in Greece. For now, worries about the crisis seem to have been offset by the benefits of a weaker euro and falling producer... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
