Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Hungarian rates should still be down The National Bank of Hungary is in a bind. On the one hand, growth remains pretty sluggish. But on the other, the high level of Swiss franc-denominated household debt limits the scope for, and the... 27th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India hikes and remains hawkish The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surprised markets with a 50bp rate hike today, lifting the repo rate to 8.0%. With the accompanying policy statement reinforcing the RBI’s hawkish policy stance, we now... 27th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update High inflation in Singapore will not bring more MAS tightening The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) revised up its 2011 inflation forecast last week while data out today show that inflation rose in June. Nonetheless, talk of runaway price pressures looks... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly No escape from deflation Reports of the death of deflation in Japan have been greatly exaggerated. Inflation has only temporarily turned positive, largely as a result of higher commodity prices and base effects in the annual... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jun.) The surprisingly sharp decline in June's consumer price inflation figures reduces the impetus for the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates. Although the decline was perhaps somewhat of an overshoot... 23rd July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Global risks may delay policy tightening Inflation remains a concern across most of the region. Central banks in Taiwan and Thailand have hiked their policy rates in recent weeks, while the central bank in Malaysia increased its reserve... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Falling real pay taking its toll The continued squeeze on real pay suggests that consumer spending will keep falling for some time. Last week we revised down our forecast for GDP growth this year from 1.5% to 1% and now expect... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The next big move in Brazilian rates will be down The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 12.50% last night. The tone of the accompanying statement suggests that rates may now have peaked, although we wouldn’t rule out... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Recovery levelling off The economy showed further signs of recovery from the earthquake-induced slump at it approached the end of the second quarter. Looking ahead to Q3, survey based measures suggest the recovery is... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada poised to raise rates? By dropping the qualification in its policy statement this morning that monetary stimulus will only be withdrawn "eventually", the Bank of Canada seems to be posturing to raise rates. Obviously there... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update E.coli outbreak not the only disinflationary factor Inflation fell sharply in most countries in the region last month, due in large part to a surprise drop in food prices. This appears to have been driven by one-off factors relating to the outbreak of... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The annual growth rate of our own Capital Economics measure of the M3 aggregate hit a two-year high of 4.9% in June, while the growth rates of both M1 and M2 continued to rise as well. 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s currency appreciation likely to slow Emerging Asia’s currencies have strengthened against the US dollar so far this year in large part because local policymakers have allowed appreciation to combat inflation. However, with inflation set... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jun.) It looks like the annual rate of headline CPI inflation peaked at 3.6% in June, but core inflation edged up to 1.6% last month, from 1.5%, and will continue to climb over the next few months. By the... 16th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Jun.) The level of retail sales has been pretty much unchanged in the three months to June, suggesting that annualised real consumption growth in the second quarter was just 0.6% and overall GDP growth was... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More policy tightening required in India Today’s price data from India show that both headline and core inflation rose further in June. What’s more, we expect the headline rate to reach double-digit levels in the third quarter. While growth... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
