Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s inflation inaccuracies underlie deeper economic ills Official statistics continue to drastically underreport inflation in Argentina, resulting in a number of serious economic distortions. Building pressures on the regime make a recession probable... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Operation Twist offers best hope among limited options Given the weakness of the incoming economic data, the Fed is now almost certain to do something at next week's FOMC meeting, but exactly what is still not entirely clear. The proposal to lengthen the... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug.) August’s data show that the drop in food price inflation has helped to offset the impact of rising housing costs in Saudi Arabia. Since the food component accounts for a quarter of the consumer price... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery going from bad to worse Recent developments have only reinforced our long-held belief that the economic recovery will remain unusually lacklustre for several more years. We now expect GDP growth of just 1.5% in 2012 and 2.0%... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) August’s consumer prices figures brought further hope that the peak in inflation is close. Lingering inflation worries amongst some MPC members should not stand in the way of more quantitative easing... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Is the squeeze on real household income over? Real personal disposable income growth slowed to a snail pace during the first half of this year, depressing consumer spending in the process. Compared to a year ago, second-quarter real income... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) August’s data show that a sharp fall in food price inflation helped to push headline inflation in Egypt down to its lowest level since the end of 2007. Core inflation also fell. But, due to concerns... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slower inflation and continued weakness in consumption Inflation fell in August and is likely to end the year much lower than today. This should open the door for policymakers to relax controls on lending, particularly if export demand slows 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Aug.) August’s producer prices figures provided the strongest indication yet that cost pressures in the industrial sector have peaked. 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s growth momentum looks resilient Economic growth rebounded strongly in the second quarter, strengthening our view that Australia’s recovery is intact despite the fall in output in Q1. Worries about the global outlook obviously add... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Headline inflation probably declined in August. It may rebound in September but is likely to have dropped to 5% or lower by the end of the year. This would remove a significant barrier to further... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian inflation edges further above target Data released this afternoon confirm that Brazilian inflation rose further above the central bank’s target in August. The news will do little to calm fears that, following last week’s surprise... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How sustainable is Argentina's economic model? Argentina’s recent economic performance masks a series of debilitating distortions which threaten to undermine the nation’s future growth prospects. With regime change seemingly unlikely, we believe... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Edging towards more QE Last month’s dovish Inflation Report, the about-turn of previous would-be rate hikers and the generally gloomy tone of recent news on the global and UK economies have pushed any remaining prospect of... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Is the ECB about to turn? The ECB is likely to soften its tone markedly at this month’s press conference amid signs of a significant deterioration in economic activity. With inflation risks probably no longer deemed to be on... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Jul./Aug.) The news that euro-zone core inflation remained very low in August while unemployment rose further in July should reduce any remaining inflation fears at the ECB, adding to expectations of possible... 1st September 2011 · 1 min read
