China Economics Update Inflation tumbles Inflation fell sharply in October and further falls are likely in coming months. With downside risks to economic growth high and rising, today’s data bolster our confidence that China’s policy is set... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to pause this month, but more QE ahead After voting to expand its quantitative easing (QE) programme last month, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) looks likely to pause for breath at this week’s policy meeting. Nonetheless, with the... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & EZ Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s falls in German industrial production and euro-zone retail sales confirm that an underlying economic downturn is accompanying the region’s debt crisis. 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Consumer price inflation probably fell sharply in October and we expect a further steep fall in November. Credit policy is likely to be loosened in coming weeks. 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Oct./Sep.) The latest euro-zone inflation and unemployment data might leave the hawks at the ECB still concerned about underlying price pressures. 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Disappointing end to an unimpressive Q3 Monthly data for September indicated a disappointing end to an unimpressive third quarter: industrial output and retail spending fell every month of the quarter while inflation turned positive for the... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Forecast downgrade and further easing, with a twist The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board is highly likely to cut its forecasts for GDP and inflation at its meeting tomorrow. Along with the fragility of financial markets and the strength of the yen, this... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) The stronger than expected increase in core CPI inflation, from 1.9% to 2.2% in September, is mostly due to higher clothing prices, reflecting the past run-up in cotton prices. Although core CPI... 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More to follow Brazil’s lead Brazil’s decision to continue cutting interest rates despite the fact that inflation is running at a five-year high remains as controversial as ever. Nonetheless, on balance we think that the central... 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: CBRT returns to orthodoxy Although the Turkish Central Bank (CBRT) kept the benchmark repo rate on hold, today’s MPC meeting marked a clear shift in its stance. Policymakers are no longer in easing mood are moving instead... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to cut next year The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its one-day repo rate at 3.5% today, as expected. The BoT’s concerns are rightly shifting from tackling inflation to supporting growth. Most analysts predict that the... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The modest 0.1% m/m increase in core consumer prices in September, which was more precisely only a 0.054% gain, should ease fears among the hawks at the Fed that underlying inflation is spiraling out... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What will weaker currencies mean for inflation? Fears that the recent sell-off in Emerging Europe’s currencies might lead to a pick-up in inflation and put pressure on policymakers to raise interest rates are overstated. Nevertheless, weaker... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.) The rise in Saudi Arabia’s inflation to a nine-month high in September will revive speculation that stimulus spending is leading to a build up in domestic price pressures. A closer look at the data... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation in decline Inflation finally seems to be moving in the right direction, opening space for policy to be eased if necessary to support the economy. Credit quotas could be loosened before the end of the year. 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
