Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Are global food prices a concern in the Gulf? Global agricultural prices have risen by around 17% in July, raising fresh fears that food inflation will increase in the oil-rich Gulf. But given subdued core price pressures in most of these... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates to be cut below 4% With the Polish economy slowing and inflation set to fall, we have revised our interest rate forecast and have now pencilled in 100bps of rate cuts (to 3.75%). This would suggest that the recent rally... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates to be cut below 4% With the Polish economy slowing and inflation set to fall, we have revised our interest rate forecast and have now pencilled in 100bps of rate cuts (to 3.75%). This would suggest that the recent rally... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jun.) & Flash CPI (Jul.) With euro-zone inflation unchanged at 2.4% in July and unemployment at a record high in June, households’ incomes are under growing downward pressure. 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What will be the effect of India’s drought? India is less vulnerable to a failed monsoon than it was a decade ago. But, if it persists, this year’s disappointing rainfall may still have a significant negative impact on output, inflation and the... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Inflation Report to leave door open to more stimulus Having extended its asset purchases at July’s meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is unlikely to make any changes to its quantitative easing QE) programme this week. We expect more QE and a... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Energy prices determining inflation in Japan The latest figures for the consumer price index in June showed the economy continues to struggle to escape deflation. Underlying price pressures remain very weak with energy prices determining short... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Three little words The markets got very excited about three little words at the end of last week. Spanish and Italian bond yields plunged, and the euro and euro-zone stock markets rose sharply, in response to ECB... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Improvement in misery index may not last A look at the so-called misery index, a simple sum of the unemployment and inflation rates, suggests that households should be starting to feel a bit happier. But we think that the recent improvement... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil still struggling The Brazilian economy continues to struggle. Having expanded by a meagre 0.2% q/q in the first quarter of this year, there are few signs that growth picked up in Q2. Elsewhere in the region, growth... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s rates on hold as balance of payments troubles persist The decision by Egypt’s Central Bank (CBE) to keep interest rates on hold was unsurprising. Although the economy is weak and inflationary pressures subdued, political instability will keep pressure on... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update An end to renminbi appreciation? The renminbi’s rise against the dollar stalled at the beginning of 2012 and the currency has fallen back in the last few weeks. The scale of depreciation to date is small – little more than 1% since... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Spring slowdown flows into summer The economic slowdown that began in the spring months has continued into the summer. We estimate that GDP grew at an annualised rate of around 1.5% in the second quarter, down from 1.9% in the first... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Drought not much of a drain on US economy The drought in parts of America is unlikely to have a major economic impact. At most, the resulting rise in agricultural commodity prices will reverse only a small part of the recent fall in inflation... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Higher food prices alone won’t derail China’s economy The recent surge in global agricultural commodity prices – if sustained – will add to the downside risks to China’s economy but it is unlikely to be a decisive factor. Overall inflationary pressures... 23rd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will global food prices prevent a recovery in real incomes? The 30% increase in global agricultural commodity prices over the last month has prompted fears of a renewed squeeze on households’ incomes. However, food prices would have to rise much further to... 23rd July 2012 · 1 min read
