Global Inflation Watch Global inflation set to fall The slowdown in global growth and recent falls in commodity prices will feed through to lower headline and core inflation in the coming months. Indeed, headline inflation is already at or near its... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam’s inflation to bring more policy tightening August price data highlight growing concerns over the stubbornly-high rate of inflation in Vietnam. Despite the backdrop of a weak global economy, we believe that the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Odds on Turkish recession start to shorten Turkish policymakers left interest rates unchanged today, but hinted that further policy loosening may be on the way. Yet even if additional stimulus is ultimately justified by a renewed downturn in... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the risks of a double dip? The major Western economies are in dire need of some good news soon to prevent a renewed slide into recession. The best hope is probably a further fall in oil prices and a sustained decline in long... 20th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jul.) The slight pick-up in core consumer price inflation in July will now be of little concern to the Bank of Canada. Considering the global recession fears now gripping markets and lower commodity prices... 20th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) A further rise in core CPI inflation in the coming months will probably prevent the Fed from responding more aggressively to the economic slowdown and latest market turmoil with a third round of asset... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What is the outlook for inflation in the GCC? The recent data show that inflation has either stabilised or started to fall in most Gulf countries over the past few months. And with a fall in food inflation set to outweigh a stimulus-related rise... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Euro-zone crisis another headache for Iceland The Icelandic central bank’s surprise interest rate hike today was in stark contrast to the increasingly dovish tone of other central banks around the world. The move reflected a sharp increase in... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India's policy tightening set to continue India’s latest wholesale price data show that inflation remains uncomfortably high. Meanwhile, we believe that a hard landing for the economy is unlikely. The upshot is that, in spite of the... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) July’s consumer prices figures confirmed that June’s surprise drop in CPI inflation was just a blip. But the fact that the rise last month was driven by a pick-up in the core rate does not mean that... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Still in the grip of deflation The revision to the CPI base-year resulted in a marked downward revision to inflation, showing clearly that Japan is still in the grip of deflation. Although the Bank of Japan has only recently... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the market turmoil mean for policy? In the wake of the recent market turmoil, the immediate priority for policymakers is to stabilise the region’s currencies. But if required central banks are more likely to rely on verbal or direct... 13th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Another pause for Peru as policymakers take shelter Peru’s Central Bank (BCRP) kept interest rates at 4.25% for the third successive month last night as policymakers wait to see if the worst of the global market storm has passed over. In the very near... 13th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Interest rates on hold until 2013? The latest Mexican Inflation Report confirms that policymakers are in no mood to begin monetary tightening. The recent global market turmoil underlines that the downside risks to Mexican growth that... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) July’s data show that a slowdown in food inflation helped to ease overall consumer price pressures in Egypt. But core inflation (which is the Central Bank’s preferred measure for setting interest... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
