Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish CPI (Jan. 15) The unexpected rise in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in January will be welcomed by the Riksbank but with prices still falling on an annual basis, we think the central bank will need to cut the... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) Wholesale price inflation dropped into negative territory in January to its lowest rate since June 2009. In particular, the sharp fall in core inflation adds to evidence elsewhere of increasing... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should we fear deflation in China? The slide in inflation in China, as elsewhere, has been driven primarily by commodity price falls due to increases in global supply. It is unambiguously positive for China’s economy. Evidence that... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What could the Bank of Canada do beyond rate cuts? The Bank of Canada's recent focus on the dangers to the economy of low oil prices may well prompt it to cut interest rates again. At only 0.75% now, however, the scope for additional interest rate... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Cut in Bank Rate returns to policy toolkit With CPI inflation on the verge of turning negative, last week’s Inflation Report saw Bank of England Governor Mark Carney discuss his available policy options should deflation show signs of becoming... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Jan.) The larger-than-expected drop in Polish inflation in January, to -1.3% y/y, should seal the deal on an interest rate cut at the next MPC meeting on 4 th March. 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Bank of Canada to cut interest rates again The slump in oil prices has dramatically altered the outlook for economic growth and inflation. Following the Bank of Canada's surprise move last month to cut its policy rate to 0.75%, from 1.00%... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Russia doomed? It’s widely acknowledged by now that the Russian economy is set for a deep recession this year and we think a fall in output of around 5% is likely. This would be similar in scale to the contraction... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) Even if we ignore the 0.8% m/m drop in January's retail sales, since it was entirely due to a massive 9.3% m/m price-related slump in the value of gasoline station sales, non-gas sales were still only... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Industrial Production (Dec.) Unlike the recently revised GDP data, the rebasing of India’s consumer price data appears to have done little to alter the headline numbers. The big picture is that inflation is still comfortably... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Feb.) February’s Bank of England Inflation Report confirmed that deflation is now on the horizon, but that it will be fairly short-lived. Indeed, the stronger medium-term inflation forecast was a warning to... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia continued to ease at the start of this year and, against the backdrop of slower economic growth and weak commodity prices, we expect it to remain low over the next twelve... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank follows the negative trend The Swedish Riksbank today became the latest central bank to respond to the threat of persistent deflation by pushing interest rates into negative territory and launching a quantitative easing... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to surprise markets by easing again in April The plunge in energy prices should provide a welcome fillip to economic activity, and thus strengthen price pressure in the medium term. But the more pressing concern is that lower inflation threatens... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recent market moves a net positive for GDP growth As a result of the recent slump in crude oil prices and the decline in long-term borrowing costs, we are raising our real GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 3.3%, from 3.0%. The boost to real consumption... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Rep: Euro-zone clouds outlook, policy to be eased further Renewed weakness in Germany and the crisis in Russia will weigh on the Czech Republic’s key export sector in the coming quarters. However, the conditions are in place for domestic demand to strengthen... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
