UK Economics Weekly Deflation should be briefer in the UK than overseas With E.On’s cut in gas prices probably kicking off a more widespread round of utility price cuts and oil prices falling even further last week, a brief dip into outright deflation now seems more... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will falling oil prices push Emerging Asia into deflation? Sharp falls in oil prices in recent months will put downward pressure on inflation across Emerging Asia, with a number of countries likely to see inflation turn negative in early 2015. On the whole... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch QE may disappoint high expectations It is virtually certain that the ECB will announce some form of quantitative easing (QE) at its Governing Council meeting on January 22nd. But given the ECB’s natural caution and Germany’s objections... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Gilt yields hit new lows on growth, not deflation, concerns The decline in UK government bond yields – to record lows at the long end of the curve – appears to have largely reflected building concerns about growth, rather than deflation. While they have fallen... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Dec.) December’s Polish CPI data, which confirmed that the economy fell deeper into deflation, add to the evidence supporting a loosening of monetary policy over the coming months. However, the sharp rise... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate fell to an eight-year low of 2.4% y/y in December. But we suspect that the big fall in inflation is now behind us and the headline rate may even edge up over the coming... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sustained franc strength will hit Swiss economy hard The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) shock decision to abandon its ceiling for the franc reflected its judgement that the policy was just not sustainable. Unless it can reverse the franc’s appreciation... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rate cuts on the horizon Today’s decision by the National Bank of Poland to keep its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.00% was clearly on a knife edge and, with the economy set to remain in deflation for much of this year... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Lower oil prices to support growth The recent sharp drop in global oil prices is a positive development for Emerging Asia. It will support growth in most economies and will put downward pressure on inflation, providing scope for... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A brief period of “good” deflation on its way We now think that a brief period of mild deflation in the UK is more likely than not. However, this should be the “good” type of deflation which will give a boost to the economy. 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) Wholesale price inflation edged up in December, but the big picture is that it remains close to five-year lows. What's more, our proxy for core WPI dropped sharply last month, suggesting that domestic... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What would keep the Fed on hold? Despite the prospect of inflation spending most of this year below zero and the mixed news on wages, we still believe that the Fed will raise rates by June at the latest. Nonetheless, it is worth... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish CPI (Dec.) The fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in December was smaller than expected but it is unlikely to alleviate the pressure on the Riksbank to take bolder action to boost inflation. 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Dec.) Inflation took another big step down in December and the halving in the oil price since the summer should mean that the UK comes within a whisker of deflation soon. But with the MPC focused on the... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish CPI (Dec. 14) The fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in December was smaller than expected but it is unlikely to alleviate the pressure on the Riksbank to take bolder action to boost inflation. 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) The rise in consumer price inflation in December was due in large part to price falls a year ago rather than any increases recently. The more significant point is that inflation remains subdued by... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
