US Chart Pack Inflation close to peaking The lagged effect of the rapid run-up in commodity prices over the past year will push CPI inflation up from 3.1% in April to close to 4% by the summer. But now that the upward trend in commodity... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation still uncomfortably high in Asia April price data show that inflation is highest (and is still rising) in Vietnam while it is lowest in Taiwan. Looking ahead, global commodity prices are likely to put downward pressure on headline... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Apr.) Consumer price inflation remained at 3.3% in April, though still up from 2.3% just three months ago. Measures of underlying inflation, more importantly, remained subdued. Provided that inflation... 20th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The good news on inflation did not last for long, with April’s sharp rise more than reversing March’s drop. However, the increase was driven by temporary factors and we still expect inflation to fall... 17th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Latest data keeps pressure on Reserve Bank of India Headline inflation fell slightly in April but is likely to rise again in the coming few months. Meanwhile, indicators of activity suggest economic growth in India is still rapid. The upshot is that we... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Approaching a peak Recent developments have reinforced our view that, although headline inflation will continue to rise in the coming months, it is likely to peak before the end of this year in both advanced and... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final, Apr.) & Trade (Mar.) April’s sharp rise in core inflation is probably not as worrying as it may seem, but it will do nothing to ease the ECB’s inflation concerns, suggesting that the Bank may raise interest rates again in... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation to fall further next year than MPC expects On the face of it, last week’s Inflation Report – showing inflation projected to be on target in two years’ time – endorsed market expectations of a modest rise in interest rates over the next couple... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Underlying inflation remains benign Last week's drop back in commodity prices was a stark reminder of why the Bank of Canada has largely ignored what looks increasingly like a temporary commodities-related spike in consumer price... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The pass through of higher commodity prices pushed consumer price inflation up to a two-and-a-half-year high of 3.2% in April, from 2.7%. Nevertheless, with commodity prices now dropping back, the Fed... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Apr.) April's retail sales data were something of a double-edged sword. Upward revisions to sales in both February and March mean that annualised GDP growth in the first quarter may be revised up from 1.8%... 12th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (May) May’s Bank of England Inflation Report left the outlook for interest rates finely balanced. But we remain of the view that the markets are overstating the likely level of rates over the next couple of... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation high, activity unexpectedly weak Inflation fell last month but it remains at a level that will keep China’s policymakers on edge. There was also further evidence that the economy was weaker at the start of Q2 than previously thought... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Apr.) Headline inflation probably fell last month on the back of sharp outright falls in vegetable prices. With economic growth stabilising, policymakers signalling they are willing to tolerate faster... 10th May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation to test BANXICO's nerve The pick-up in Mexican inflation last month was due almost entirely to a rise in food prices. By contrast, core inflation remains more subdued. The lagged effects of higher global commodity prices are... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Emerging market inflation close to peaking Inflation will continue to edge higher in most emerging markets over the coming months but should peak by Q4. Indeed, in some countries (notably China) it may already have done so. Accordingly, while... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
