Global Economics Update Too early to stop worrying about deflation (except in the US) In its Annual Report, published at the weekend, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) argued that “the risk of persistent and self-perpetuating disinflationary pressure is low” and that the... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q2) While today's Tankan points to a contraction in GDP of around 0.5% q/q last quarter, the survey suggests that the recovery will resume in the second half of the year. 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) June’s weak euro-zone inflation figures will add to pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support, particularly given recent signs that the recovery may already be slowing. 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jun.) & Housing Starts (May) According to June's small business confidence, the economy has recovered quickly from the shock to demand caused by the consumption tax hike. 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & German CPI estimate (Jun.) June’s EC Business and Consumer Survey added to signs that the euro-zone recovery could be nearing a peak when it has barely begun. 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (national: May; Tokyo: Jun.), Unemployment & Retail Sales (May) The rebound in retail sales and the renewed decline in the unemployment rate in May confirm that the slump following the consumption tax hike was short-lived. 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rebound in inflation won't change interest rate outlook The recent pick-up in inflation, which mainly reflects volatility in energy and food prices, won't change the Bank of Canada's neutral view on rates. With exports and investment still underperforming... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recent increase in oil price poses little threat to EM inflation The recent increase in oil prices is unlikely to have much of an impact on EM inflation, which in most places looks set to remain fairly benign. 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Are higher oil prices a threat to Asia? A sharp rise in oil prices as a result of the crisis in Iraq would have negative effects on Emerging Asia. While the inflationary impact is likely to be manageable, most Asian economies are net... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (June) June's flash manufacturing PMI confirms that the economy has stabilised after the slump caused by the consumption tax hike. 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Underlying price pressure has eased dramatically April’s consumption tax hike has made it more difficult to assess the strength of consumer price pressures. But different approaches that make allowance for the one-off impact of the tax increase lead... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) The stronger than expected pick-up in both headline and core inflation indicates that inflation will overshot the Bank of Canada's previous forecast assumptions. Since a large part of this is due to... 20th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs take heart as Fed sticks to taper plan Financial conditions across the emerging world have eased in recent months, as continued policy support from central banks in the developed world has supported risk appetite. This in turn has reduced... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Iraq crisis raises contagion fears The unfolding crisis in Iraq has cast a shadow over the region, causing equity markets to tumble. As it happens, the largest MENA economies have only limited trade and financial ties with Iraq... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Latin America’s economy looks set to remain stuck in the slow lane over the next couple of years. The drivers of strong growth over the past decade – including rapid credit growth and strong global... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank opening its eyes to weakening economy As we expected given signs of a slowdown in the energy sector, the Norges Bank pushed back its first projected rate hike until 2016. Although the krone weakened on the news, the economic slowdown may... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
