Bank of Japan Watch “Third arrow” may trigger additional monetary stimulus The Bank of Japan will likely leave policy settings unchanged at the meeting that concludes on Friday (13 th June). We continue to expect more easing in October as it becomes clear that inflation... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Improving inflation outlook to keep interest rates low An improving outlook for inflation in Mexico suggests that Friday’s surprise interest rate cut is unlikely to be reversed in a hurry. We expect interest rates to remain at their new historic low of 3... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe's deflation risk not as great as the euro-zone's There are growing concerns that, as the euro-zone flirts with deflation, Central Europe could suffer a similar fate. However, the drivers of the deflation threat in the region are different and seem... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCB’s inflation headache goes from bad to worse The larger-than-expected rise in Brazil inflation in May leaves it on course to breach the upper bound of its target range over the coming months. This would be a major blow to the central bank... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Growth rebounding in second quarter The world economy slowed significantly in Q1, largely because output contracted in the US and growth weakened in China. But this should be followed by a rebound in the current quarter. Indeed, the... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.14) With both consumer and producer price inflation likely to have risen in May, there are few convincing signs that China is sliding into deflation. This should ease calls for the People’s Bank to roll... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Strong growth but still no productivity rebound While the latest activity surveys suggest that the recovery might have gathered pace in the second quarter, a revival in productivity has remained elusive. Indeed, firms are hiring workers in record... 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation risks still mounting May’s fall in euro-zone HICP inflation from 0.7% to 0.5% left it at its joint weakest rate since October 2009 and far beneath the ECB’s 2% price stability ceiling. There is no sign of inflationary... 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q1), Final PMI (May) & PPI (Apr.) The latest batch of data on the euro-zone maintained the strong pressure on the ECB to provide further policy stimulus at tomorrow’s Governing Council meeting. 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone turning Japanese? There is a real and growing danger that the euro-zone enters a Japanese-style bout of flat or falling prices. But even a prolonged period of low positive inflation would seriously hamper the... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) May’s fall in euro-zone inflation and the still high level of unemployment in April will add to the pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support in order to address the growing risks of... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate cuts unlikely any time soon in India The central bank left interest rates unchanged today, as expected. Looking ahead, rate cuts are unlikely any time soon despite subpar economic growth as consumer price inflation remains high. 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack GDP growth slowed in Q1, likely to remain sluggish First quarter GDP data released over the past month suggest that the region’s economy slowed further at the start of this year, with growth dipping to just 2.0% y/y in Q1, down from 2.2% y/y in Q4... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (national: Apr.; Tokyo: May), Unemployment & Industrial Production (Apr.) Neither the surge in inflation nor the slowdown in industrial production in April came as a surprise, and firms expect output to stabilise in coming months while inflation should moderate. 30th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses testing their pricing power Our view that core inflation will increase faster than the Fed expects is based on expectations that both rent of shelter and medical inflation will continue to rise and that an acceleration in wage... 26th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The expected increase in headline inflation, to 2.0% in April from 1.5% in March, mainly reflects higher energy price inflation which should prove to be temporary. In contrast, core inflation only... 23rd May 2014 · 1 min read
