Europe Chart Pack Have the ECB's contingencies been met? The latest economic data have left the ECB’s two “contingencies” for further policy action – a worsening of the medium-term inflation outlook and an unwarranted tightening of the money markets –... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update El Niño-related food inflation worries in India premature India's high dependence on rainfall for crop production makes it particularly vulnerable to the dry El Niño weather conditions that many weather forecasters expect this year. Concerns over the... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Deflation to trump Riksbank’s household debt concerns The Riksbank’s report on household indebtedness underscores the magnitude of the problem and the need for it to be addressed. But we continue to think that the Bank will cut interest rates as... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May 14) Headline inflation is likely to have dropped in April but is set to rebound this month, due to swings in food inflation. That said, the broader picture is that price pressures remain low and stable... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Inflation in the Gulf may be reaching a bottom A drop in food inflation has caused inflationary pressures to ease across much of the Gulf over the past twelve months. But inflation may now be bottoming out. Food inflation is set to pick-up again... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are inflation expectations still well anchored? Although survey measures of short-term inflation expectations have fallen sharply, medium-term forecasts have so far remained well anchored. However, with deflationary pressures building, a de... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) April’s inflation figures might have eased some of the immediate pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide more policy support, but they did not alter the big picture of growing deflation... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank surprises markets with a rate hike An acceleration in inflation, in part due to the recent sharp drop in the ruble, caused Russia’s central bank to hike interest rates by 50bp today. Looking ahead, with inflation likely to remain high... 25th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation concerns resurface in Brazil Inflation has started to accelerate once again in Brazil, casting doubt over signals from the central bank that the hike in interest rates earlier this month could be the last in the current... 25th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (national: Mar.; Tokyo: Apr.) While the consumption tax hike at the beginning of April lifted inflation in the capital region close to 3%, price pressure should abate in coming months as import prices have moderated. 25th April 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Inflation follows different paths in Saudi Arabia and the UAE Inflation has followed very different paths in the Gulf’s two largest economies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, in recent months. In Saudi, consumer price inflation has continued to fall... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is an El Niño a risk to EM inflation? The current period of subdued inflation in the emerging world shows no signs of nearing an end. One possible risk to the outlook is an El Niño, which weather forecasters warn could be on its way, and... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rise in South African inflation has further to run South African inflation rose in March to the ceiling of the Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) target range, and the effects of a weak rand and rising local food prices mean it is likely to accelerate further... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Mar.) While headline inflation rebounded to 1.5% in March, from 1.1%, the uptick was due to higher energy prices and base year effects. In contrast, core inflation climbed only slightly to 1.3% last month... 17th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Poor consumer sentiment adds to PM Abe’s challenges The collapse in consumer confidence shows that Japanese households lost their enthusiasm for “Abenomics” well before investor appetite for Japanese equities began to wane. 17th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB get the euro down? The ECB’s battle against deflation is turning into a fight to lower the euro exchange rate. But it is far from clear that the central bank will act sufficiently to bring the currency down far enough. 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
