Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The expected increase in headline inflation, to 2.0% in April from 1.5% in March, mainly reflects higher energy price inflation which should prove to be temporary. In contrast, core inflation only... 23rd May 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Price pressures are strengthening There is now enough evidence to conclude that price pressures are strengthening. The increase in CPI inflation to 2.0% in April left it in line with the Fed’s target and core inflation rose to an... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Impact of currency weakness on inflation has been muted The sharp fall in many emerging market (EM) currencies over the past year has not led to the big EM-wide inflation shock that some were predicting. Looking ahead, we expect inflation across the... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sedlabanki on hold, but rates to rise later this year Iceland’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 6% at its meeting today, despite raising its medium-term forecasts for GDP growth. We continue to think that the Sedlabanki will have to raise... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.) While CPI inflation rose in April, this largely reflected a temporary boost from the later timing of Easter this year. Underlying price pressures have remained subdued and we continue to think that... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Apr.) A widespread pick up in price pressures is now underway, which we think will result in both the CPI and PCE measures of core inflation rising above the Fed’s 2% target. Meanwhile, the fall in... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Inflation Report stems rise in market interest rates Speculation that the Bank of England’s May Inflation Report would show that the Monetary Policy Committee is preparing to raise interest rates proved to be unfounded, prompting a significant fall back... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s wholesale inflation eases, but RBI unlikely to budge India’s wholesale price inflation dipped unexpectedly last month, but this is unlikely to persuade the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to abandon its hawkish stance on monetary policy any time soon. 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Despite a small rise in purchasing intentions, consumer confidence remained at very weak levels last month. 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Market may be too quick to price in Russia rate cuts The recent rebound in the ruble has led the market to price in interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) over the coming months. We think this is premature. Leaving aside the fact that... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s next government forced to build on sluggish economy As voting in India’s general election draws to a close today, another batch of disappointing data has underlined the economic challenges that will face the new government. 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Low inflation and the FPC should keep rates down The main risks to our view that low inflation will keep interest rates on hold for longer than markets expect stem from the MPC’s increased focus on spare capacity under phase two of its forward... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation to prevent interest rate cuts despite slow growth Rising inflation looks set to force policymakers in most parts of Latin America to keep monetary policy relatively tight despite evidence that the region is entering a new phase of weaker economic... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr 14.) Worries about deflation following the release of today’s price data from China are overdone. Last month's drop in consumer price inflation was due to a sharp fall of vegetable price inflation, which... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery robust but housing market concerns build The last month’s data has provided further evidence that the UK economy is enjoying a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario of solid, but not excessive, growth and low inflation. The latest PMI surveys suggest that... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack West outperforming East The US is enjoying a strong rebound after its weather-induced slowdown, the UK has extended its period of rapid growth into Q2 and the recovery in the euro-zone has gained momentum. On the other hand... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
