Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold, but battle against deflation is not won The lack of upward pressure on the franc following the last ECB meeting has allowed the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to leave policy on hold for now. But deflation dangers are particularly severe in... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed dovish today, but should turn more hawkish later The Fed opted to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.25% to 0.50% today, while also lowering its projections for the pace of future rate hikes. Nevertheless, as inflation continues to rise and... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What inflation rate is the ECB really targeting? Despite its latest policy loosening, the ECB’s behaviour over recent years has been consistent with an inflation objective of closer to 1% than 2%. This has depressed economic growth and increased the... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Feb.) Despite lower gasoline prices weighing on headline CPI inflation, the much bigger story is the surge in core inflation to a four-year high of 2.3% in February, which illustrates that the Fed can’t... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic rates on hold but hikes are on the horizon Iceland’s central bank decided today to keep its key interest rates unchanged for the third meeting in a row, citing low global inflation and a strengthening currency. But with inflationary pressures... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Feeling the squeeze 2016 is shaping up to be a better year for investors in Latin America than 2015. With global commodity prices now at a bottom and set to edge up this year, we expect most equity markets in the region... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Feb.) The slightly weaker-than-expected Polish inflation figure for last month, of -0.8% y/y, may at the margin make interest rate cuts more likely. However, given the restrained comments from last week’s... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.) Nigerian inflation rose to 11.6% y/y in February, largely due to the falling parallel market exchange rate. This will deal yet another blow to the controversial FX system. 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to rise rapidly in the US, but not elsewhere Headline inflation in most advanced economies should rise towards the end of this year, when the effects of the past slump in energy prices finally drop out of the annual comparison. Core inflation... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb.) The renewed fall in Sweden’s inflation rate in February was largely down to movements in energy prices. But with underlying price pressures still largely absent, the Riksbank may well need to take... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb. 16) The renewed fall in Sweden’s inflation rate in February was largely down to movements in energy prices. But with underlying price pressures still largely absent, the Riksbank may well need to take... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Indian consumer price inflation dropped in February as food price pressures abated. However, the RBI still faces a difficult task in meeting its inflation targets for the next two years. 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) Wholesale price inflation held steady in February, but we think that it will return to positive territory over the next couple of months. 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is there a bubble in commercial property? It is questionable whether the surge in commercial property prices can be sustained. The rise in multi-family apartment prices, which explains a large part of the overall increase in commercial... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central Europe set to shine while Russia continues to struggle We expect the economies of Central Europe (Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic) to perform well over 2016-17. Consumer spending looks set to stay strong, while export sectors will... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will the Gulf finance budget deficits this year? Low oil prices mean that budget deficits will persist for some time in the GCC and we think these countries will shift away from a reliance on savings towards issuing debt to plug the gap this year... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
