Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC flags up prospect of further rate cuts Governor Isarescu opened the door to further interest rate cuts in Romania at today’s post-MPC meeting press conference. Much will depend on inflation data for July and August, due to be released... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: interest rates do not have much further to rise Policymakers in Colombia hiked interest rates by another 25bp to 4.25% last night but we do not think that the current tightening cycle has much further to run. Inflation is unlikely to pose a problem... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further tightening likely in the Philippines The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) hiked its main policy rate earlier today for the first time in over three years in a further attempt to reduce risks in the financial sector and clamp down on... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Tightening cycles have further to run The tightening cycles that began in Ghana and South Africa earlier this year continued in July and, in both cases, we think that further interest rate hikes are likely before the end of 2014. Ghana’s... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jul.) & Unemployment (Jun.) July’s flash euro-zone consumer prices data underlined the continued weaknessof price pressures in the currency union and supported our view that the ECB hasmore work to do to tackle the risk of... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook North Africa getting back on its feet Three years on from the “Arab Spring” uprisings, the tide is turning in favour of the economies of North Africa. Admittedly, there are still many challenges, not least reining in large twin current... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Property price worries prompt rate hikes The central banks of New Zealand, the Philippines and Malaysia all tightened monetary policy last month amid signs that policymakers are becoming increasingly concerned that loose monetary policy is... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Interest rates heading in opposite directions The Russian central bank caused a surprise earlier this month by hiking its one-week repo rate in a pre-emptive move to limit capital outflows ahead of a fresh sanctions imposed by the US and EU. This... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What does the anti-corruption campaign mean for the economy? China’s anti-corruption campaign has claimed its biggest scalp to date with today’s formal announcement of an investigation into former Standing Committee member Zhou Yongkang. Over the past 18 months... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Signs of recovery in North Africa Following a difficult few years, the latest data have provided further evidence that things are improving in North Africa. It looks like growth in both Tunisia and Egypt accelerated over the first... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Widening trade deficit due to strong domestic demand Although the trade deficit has widened in recent months, the increase is largely due to the strength of imports rather than the weakness of exports. Our calculations suggest that exports increased at... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jul.) While the renewed improvement in small business confidence in July lifted the index well above its long-term average, the survey still points to sluggish industrial output. 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation likely to peak before end of this year The recent pick-up in inflation has led some people to question the Bank of Canada's neutral stance on interest rates, but we think these concerns are misplaced. The recent increase in headline... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Surprise Russia rate hike a response to geopolitics not inflation Russia’s central bank justified its surprise decision to hike interest rates this morning on stubbornly high inflation, but it’s pretty clear that this is a pre-emptive move to limit capital outflows... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina teeters on the brink of another default With talks between Buenos Aires and holdout bondholders seemingly having stalled, it appears increasingly likely that Argentina will be prevented from making an interest payment that is due on... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (national: Jun.; Tokyo: Jul.) The dip in nationwide inflation in June and the second consecutive fall in the capital region in July suggest that the impact of the sales tax hike has started to fade. We expect core inflation excl... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
