Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier financial markets recover some ground A combination of improving investor sentiment and a pick-up in global commodity prices has underpinned a recovery in frontier financial markets in recent weeks. Since reaching a two-year low in early... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Making a good start to the year Data released over the past month have provided further evidence that regional growth strengthened at the start to the year. Admittedly, the region’s largest economy, Russia, remains in recession. But... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Mar.) The larger-than-expected fall in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month, to 10.0% y/y from 10.4% y/y over February as a whole, is encouraging. We expect inflation to continue to fall back... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM markets bounce back strongly The last month has seen EM financial markets recover from their poor start to 2016. Our Synthetic EM Exchange Rate Index has rallied to its strongest level since November. Almost all EM currencies... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf entering a prolonged period of weak growth The storm created by low oil prices will finally make its presence felt in the Gulf this year and we expect this to be the start of an extended period of slow growth. A wave of devaluations is highly... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) Today’s surprisingly high South African inflation figure will probably lead the SARB to accelerate its programme of rate hikes. This will be very painful for an economy that is struggling to avoid... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Mar.) The fall in Mexican headline inflation in the first half of March, to 2.7% y/y from 2.9% y/y over February as a whole, confirms that overall price pressures remain in check for now. However, the rise... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Partial U-turn further muddles monetary outlook The Central Bank of Nigeria hiking its key policy rate from 11.00% to 12.00% is, in many ways, a positive sign. But this flip-flop on rates will raise yet more questions about the unpredictable and... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Public Finances (Feb.) February’s disappointing public finances figures were yet another blow for the Chancellor by suggesting the OBR’s new forecasts published in last week’s Budget already look too optimstic . Meanwhile... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Feb.) Saudi inflation eased in February to 4.2% y/y, although it remained high due to the impact of recent administered price rises. But with economic growth slowing, we think underlying price pressures... 21st March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore housing: a bubble deflated Property prices in Singapore have fallen for ten consecutive quarters and we expect the slide to continue. The gradual deflation of what had looked like a potential housing bubble has left the economy... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Risk of deflation appears to be passing February’s consumer prices figures should show inflation creeping further above the zero rates seen for most of last year. Although the risk of a relapse cannot be entirely ruled out – if, for example... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Inflation, rand weakness force painful hike Today’s interest rate hike in South Africa will be followed with further tightening later this year in response to the deteriorating inflation outlook. 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jan.) & Final CPI (Feb.) January’s euro-zone goods trade data showed that export growth slowed again at the start of 2016, suggesting that the previous small boost from the weaker euro has faded. We expect the region’s trade... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia cuts again, easing cycle nearing end A rebounding currency, subdued economic growth and inflation, and the Fed’s dovishness yesterday all fed into Bank Indonesia’s decision to cut its main policy rate for the third time in as many months... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack “Basically stable” renminbi slides lower Three months after the People’s Bank hinted that it would in future manage the renminbi relative to a currency basket rather than the dollar the jury is still out on what this means in practice... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
