ECB Watch Preparing the ground for QE The ECB now seems to be taking deflation risks more seriously, implementing surprise interest rate cuts in September and leaving the door wide open to quantitative easing. With the economy apparently... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Diverging rate paths to favour gilts Since the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is probably only a few months away from starting to raise interest rates, gilt yields are likely to depart from their three decade long downward trend soon... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation will bounce back Despite the weaker core inflation readings over the past couple of months, we still expect core inflation to climb gradually, rising above the Fed's 2% target in the first half of next year... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack What is behind the recent currency weakness? Sizeable falls in a number of Asian currencies against the US dollar over the past month have rekindled unwelcome memories of last summer’s “Taper Tantrum”. As was the case during last year’s sell-off... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary to keep rates at record low well into next year The National Bank of Hungary’s post-meeting press release reinforced the message that the MPC sees little pressure to raise interest rates. Indeed, with inflation likely to remain low, and economic... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling commodity prices to help keep EM inflation subdued Recent falls in the prices of oil and a number of agricultural commodities add to the reasons to expect EM inflation to stay muted over the coming months. But while in aggregate we think that... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Next SARB Governor faces an uphill task Speculation is mounting that one of the current Deputy Governors will take over from Gill Marcus as Governor of the South African Reserve Bank. But the bigger picture is that, whoever is appointed... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Minimum wage pledges unlikely to benefit households much With real wages still falling, proposals to raise the national minimum wage (NMW) look set to play a key role in political parties’ general election campaigns. But given the likely adverse effects on... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Aug.) The unexpected rise in the official core inflation rate, mainly due to recent price hikes in household communications, doesn't appear to reflect any tightening in domestic economic conditions and... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Return to normalcy? The recent strength evident in much of the incoming survey and activity data suggeststhat we were right to believe GDP growth would accelerate once credit conditions eased and thefiscal drag faded. We... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How does “Draghi-nomics” compare to Abenomics? ECB President Mario Draghi’s call at Jackson Hole for fiscal policy to play a greater role alongside monetary policy in boosting aggregate demand has prompted some to label the change of tone “Draghi... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy continues to stagnate August’s raft of Russian activity data suggests that the economy continued to stagnate. Growth in the industrial sector slowed, while the slump in investment activity deepened further. What’s more... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further softening in core price pressures in August eases the pressure on the Fedto weaken its “considerable time” rate pledge at today’s policy meeting. 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currencies suffer further loses Emerging market (EM) currencies have had a rough ride recently, adding to what was already shaping up to be a poor year. Our synthetic EM exchange rate index is down by 1.5% against the dollar in the... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Aug.) August’s consumer prices figures confirmed that CPI inflation has remained on a downward trend despite the economic recovery’s strength. Looking ahead, we continue to think that it could fall to as... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Drop in ruble strengthens case for interest rate hike The sharp fall in the ruble over the past week or so reflects a combination of factors, including the drop in oil prices, continued capital flight in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
