Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency effects begin to unwind The effects of sharp falls in EM exchange rates since 2014 – which pushed inflation up to multi-year highs in a number of major economies – are now starting to fade. Assuming there isn’t another big... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Oil rally helps to lift pessimism over Russia Some of the gloom surrounding Russia’s economy seems to have lifted over the past month. The rise in oil prices has triggered a rally in local financial markets – the ruble is up by 12% against the... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia remained elevated at 4.3% y/y in March due to the electricity and water tariff hikes earlier in the year and, more recently, last month’s hike in tobacco import duties. These... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Retail Sales (Feb.) The rise in the core inflation rate in March, to 2.1% from 1.9%, was stronger than expected but appears mainly due to the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar. As the weakness in the economy takes... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) The small fall in April’s euro-zone PMI suggests that the weakening of the region’s activity surveys this year has been due to more than just concerns about overseas demand, which have eased recently... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pre-election spending splutter mostly a myth The idea that households and businesses postpone their spending ahead of a Federal election is more fallacy than fact. Admittedly, there is some evidence that the uncertainty generated by an election... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish inflation to continue easing (for now) The sharp decline in Turkish inflation since January has caught many (ourselves included) by surprise and we think the headline rate is likely to continue to fall over the rest of this year. That... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Some respite for commodity producers The worst looks to be over for many EM commodity producers. Their currencies have again been among the best performers this month, helped by a continued recovery in commodity prices. The slump in... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending growth moderates Although retail spending has come off the boil in the past couple of months, the consumer recovery is on the whole holding up reasonably well. Indeed, there are few signs that Brexit uncertainty is... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Rates may have to fall to 1.75% We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 2.00% at the meeting in early June rather than at the meeting on Thursday 28th April, although we wouldn’t completely rule... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed to leave door open to June rate hike Despite the marked improvement in financial conditions and fading fears over China’s economic outlook, the Fed is very unlikely to raise interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes on... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation eased a touch in March, but we still expect that it will rise over the duration of 2016. The current pause was mainly the result of strengthening rand. 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Stronger dollars a major threat to outlook The recent rise of the Australian and New Zealand dollars will prevent GDP growth from strengthening this year and will keep core inflation at uncomfortably low levels. This is particularly true in... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Signs of a rebound in Q1 A cyclical rebound appears to be underway. Admittedly, there is no sign of a turnaround in either the official GDP figures or Q1 industrial production. But evidence elsewhere points to a policy-driven... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the Fed let inflation overshoot? Inflation is going to overshoot the Fed’s 2% target, let’s be clear. While we expect Fed officials to be fairly relaxed about that, however, we don’t think it means interest rates won’t rise at all... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Mar.) Wholesale price inflation was virtually unchanged in March but, looking ahead, we think that it will return to positive territory over the next couple of months. 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
