UK Economics Update Oil price rebound does not eliminate chance of deflation The recent rebound in the oil price does not mean that the UK will necessarily avoid a spell of deflation, although it does increase the chance that the spell is brief and shallow. 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy starts 2015 on a surer footing While the preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP indicated that the recovery lost pace towards the end of 2014, early 2015 appears to have seen a renewed acceleration. Indeed, monthly indicators of output... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Dec.) The surge in labour cash earnings in December reflects higher winter bonuses and is unlikely to last. A strong rise in base pay in the upcoming spring wage negotiations will be needed to improve the... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) House price pressures came off the boil at the end of 2014, with the year-on-year rate of house price inflation at or around 5% during the final four months of the year. With the supply of homes for... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jan.) The smaller-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation last month, to 7.2% y/y, means the central bank won’t hold an extraordinary meeting tomorrow to lower interest rates, but this is only likely to... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Big number of small winners > small number of big losers Last week, mixed news on corporate earnings and an unexpected decline in underlying capital goods orders in December renewed fears that recent market moves are somehow a net negative for the US... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Unemployment (Dec.) January’s drop in core euro-zone inflation to a record low brought further confirmation that deflationary pressures in the currency union go well beyond the effect of falling oil and energy prices. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ pinning hopes on strong Shunto wage deal A strong rise in base pay in the spring wage negotiations (Shunto) would help convince the Bank of Japan that the current weakness in inflation will prove temporary. A tight labour market and strong... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico on hold but rate cuts still not out of the question Interest rates in Mexico were left unchanged at 3.0% last night and concerns amongst policymakers about the weakness of the peso suggest that cuts are unlikely in the very near-term. For our part, we... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices, Unemployment, Industrial Production & Household Spending (Dec.) The labour market continues to tighten, as the economic recovery is picking up speed. However, the continued slowdown in inflation suggests that the Bank of Japan still has more work to do. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is very low inflation the new norm? CPI inflation looks set to turn negative in the next few months. Whilst we expect the UK’s period of deflation to be short and shallow, there are a number of factors which nonetheless should mean that... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What’s really happening to US inflation expectations? To what extent have recent declines in US bond market-based measures of inflation expectations been driven by changes in expectations for inflation? This is neither a conundrum nor as stupid a... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to tread cautiously as deflation approaches The chances of interest rates rising soon look even slimmer now that a spell of deflation is on the horizon. However, if we are right in expecting deflation to be brief and of the “good” sort, this... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI & Unemployment (Jan.) January’s drop in German HICP inflation well into negative territory highlights the strength of deflationary pressures in even the euro-zone’s strongest economies. While falls in prices should prove... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Interest rate cuts to be exception rather than rule Expectations that the fall in oil prices will trigger a wave of interest rate cuts across Asia are probably wide of the mark. Admittedly, Pakistan, India and Singapore have each loosened monetary... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand's central bank takes a more neutral stance The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate at 3.5% today and suggested there is now far less certainty its next move will be a hike. We are not expecting any changes in 2015 or 2016. 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
