US Economics Update Temporary deflation won’t prevent rate hikes The latest fall in crude oil prices means that headline CPI inflation will drop below zero in January and could remain in negative territory for most of the year. Nevertheless, this bout of deflation... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Oil price decline to bolster recovery in 2015 The halving of oil prices over the past six months should provide some timely support to the economic recovery. Indeed, coupled with the freezing of energy bills this winter, lower oil prices should... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch 2015 rate rise still likely despite oil price plunge Heightened uncertainty regarding how weak inflation will be in 2015 and signs that the recovery has become less broad-based are likely to mean that the MPC keeps interest rates on hold at January’s... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Demographic headwinds are picking up Firms were predicting strong gains in industrial output around the turn of the year despite some weakness in the latest figures on spending and production. But with the labour force now shrinking and... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The sharp fall in Turkish inflation last month, to 8.2% y/y from 9.2% y/y, was an encouraging development, but core inflation remained extremely high. Elsewhere, December’s batch of manufacturing PMI... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Dec.) The decline in small business confidence to a seven-month low in December underlines that economic momentum in Japan remains sluggish. 24th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Sri Lanka faces tight election contest Sri Lanka’s presidential election, scheduled for 8 th January, is shaping up to be much closer than expected, with the current president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, now facing a genuine challenge from... 24th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Lat Am markets suffer end-year jitters Financial markets across Latin America have come under renewed pressure in the final weeks of this year. Part of the trigger has been renewed falls in oil prices. The currencies of two of the region’s... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia spirals into crisis The Russian ruble has stabilised in recent days, but only after the central bank introduced a raft of measures to limit ruble liquidity – including a massive hike in interest rates – and, perhaps more... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Can the Bank of Canada fight the US Fed? Household imbalances, an uneven export recovery and, more recently, the slump in oil prices are all downside risks to the economic and inflation outlook. That's three reasons for the Bank of Canada to... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The unexpected decline in the official core inflation rate to 2.1% in November, from 2.3%, supports the Bank of Canada's cautious neutral stance on the interest rate outlook. With the slump in oil... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What role for exchange rate ceilings? The Swiss National Bank introduced a negative deposit rate yesterday, but its main tool to combat the threat of deflation is a ceiling for the Swiss franc. Given the continued threat of deflation and... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A predictably weak year The euro-zone economy behaved largely as we anticipated in 2014, with growth remaining distinctly sluggish, inflation falling, the ECB forced into more policy action and the euro weakening. The... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Unemp. (Nov.) Data to the middle of this month suggest that inflation is on track to fall back within target range in December. However, we doubt that this will be enough to prevent policymakers from raising... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil price falls won’t let high inflation EMs off the hook Although the recent drop in oil prices will continue to exert downward pressure on inflation in most parts of the emerging world, it won’t provide a lasting solution for the economies with high... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Rate surge puts PBOC in a bind Interbank interest rates this week recorded their biggest increase in several months. The rate increase is much smaller than at this time last year but a key difference is that the People’s Bank cut... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
