Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Apr.) April’s Polish CPI data, which showed that consumer prices fell by 1.1% y/y compared with a drop of 1.5% y/y in March, should ease lingering concerns that deflation might become entrenched. But today... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) Wholesale price inflation recorded another large drop in April, to its lowest rate since the series began in 2005. Importantly, as the consumer price data released on Tuesday also showed, core... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland: An example for Greece to follow? Iceland’s healthy economic recovery after its financial collapse in 2008 highlights the attractions of currency depreciation, if necessary accompanied by capital controls. Such a path has its economic... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s inflation problem likely to get worse We have been warning about the deep-rooted drivers of Turkish inflation for some time, and it now looks like energy prices will compound the problem by pushing the headline rate even further above the... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: surprise hike probably result of IMF pressure The Bank of Ghana justified its surprise decision to hike its policy interest rate, from 21% to 22%, today by pointing to elevated inflation, although we think that pressure from the IMF also played a... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (May) May’s Bank of England Inflation Report supports financial markets’ (and our own) view that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is in no rush to raise interest rates. However, we do not think that the... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland: An example for Greece to follow? Iceland’s healthy economic recovery after its financial collapse in 2008 highlights the attractions of currency depreciation, if necessary accompanied by capital controls. Such a path has its economic... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sedlabanki holds, but interest rates to rise soon Although Iceland’s central bank left its main interest rates on hold today, it adopted a much more hawkish tone, signalling that it was likely to start hiking rates as early as next month. 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) The drop in consumer price inflation in April was due in large part to a decline in food price pressures, but perhaps the more significant point for the Reserve Bank is that core inflation remains low... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Apr.) The renewed fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in April suggests that the Riksbank’spolicy easing so far has eradicated the threat that deflation becomes entrenched. Accordingly, further... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Curr. Acc. (Mar.) & Czech CPI (Apr.) Turkey’s higher-than-expected current account deficit figure for March provides further evidence that weak exports have almost entirely offset the benefit to the economy from lower oil prices. And the... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Apr. 15) The renewed fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in April suggests that the Riksbank’s policy easing so far has not eradicated the threat that deflation becomes entrenched. Accordingly, further... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Austerity and low inflation likely to keep MPC inactive Since the first estimate of Q1 GDP has cast some doubt over the recovery’s health, the MPC is likely to have voted unanimously again at this month’s meeting to keep interest rates on hold. And while... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) Egyptian inflation fell back to 11.0% y/y in April but we think the central bank will wait for inflation to ease further before it cuts interest rates again. The effects of last year’s energy price... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Consumer price inflation edged up in April and should continue to recover in coming months. This, along with signs that producer price inflation is also beginning to bottom out, should ease concerns... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Apr.) Brazil inflation edged up again last month but, with the big increases in regulated prices now over, it is probably close to peaking. Meanwhile in Chile, inflation continues to grind lower and should... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
