Canada Economic Outlook Downside risks multiplying Even with the US economic recovery moving into a higher gear, the outlook for Canada's economy is, at best, mediocre. Furthermore, there is now a significant risk that a perfect storm of a collapse in... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Current Account (Q3) November’s consumer prices figures leave inflation on course to fall someway below 1.0% next summer. But this won’t prevent the Fed from dropping its “considerable time” pledge from its policy... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack 2015 shaping up to be another lacklustre year The turmoil in Russia and broader weakness in EM financial markets has brought a subdued end to the year. For 2014 as a whole, the latest data point to aggregate GDP growth of less than 5% for the... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Falling energy prices jeopardise inflation target Policymakers will have been comforted by the jump in the Nikkei and the plunge in the yen since they stepped up the pace of monetary easing at the end of October. As such, they will almost certainly... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden gearing up for unconventional monetary policy Sweden’s central bank today pushed back the date at which it expects to raise its policy rate from zero and revealed that it was preparing unconventional measures to make policy even more expansionary... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How did our 2014 forecasts stack up? In our final Weekly of the year we will be outlining our key forecasts for 2015. But this week we take a look back at how we did in 2014. Our downbeat forecasts for growth largely played out, as did... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fed can't delay for much longer The outlook for real economic growth was already looking up even before the recent collapse in energy prices. We expect real GDP growth to accelerate from 2.3% this year to 3.0% in 2015, before... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Nov.) On the face of it, November’s Polish CPI data, which showed that the economy remained in deflation, argue in favour of additional interest rate cuts. But we’re not convinced that these figures will... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How would prolonged deflation affect euro-zone equities? It is tempting to think that a prolonged period of mild deflation in the euro-zone would be terrible news for equities. After all, Japan’s stock market generally fared poorly for much of the time... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Nov.) Data released over the weekend showed that inflation in Nigeria continued to slow in November. But we expect it to accelerate again before too long as the effect of the naira’s weakness feeds through... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Wholesale price data for November out today provide more evidence of disinflationary pressures following the release of last month’s CPI data on Friday, and build on the case for the RBI to begin... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that Japan’s economy stabilised in the fourth quarter, but a rapid recovery is not on the cards. 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stress tests unlikely to prevent lending revival in 2015 The Bank of England will publish the results of its latest stress test of UK banks this week. While we would not like to wager that all eight banks will pass this year’s tough assessment, the lifting... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) Today’s data show that consumer price inflation dropped to its slowest pace on record in November. With the latest numbers also showing continued weakness in industrial output, the case for policy... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key questions for EMs in 2015 The slump in oil prices and renewed falls in EM currencies over the past month have rekindled fears over the outlook for emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we think... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Slowest regional growth since the late 1990s Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to slow to its weakest pace since the late 1990s next year. There are several drivers of this weakness, but a common theme is that the global commodities boom... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
