Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rate cuts on the horizon Today’s decision by the National Bank of Poland to keep its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.00% was clearly on a knife edge and, with the economy set to remain in deflation for much of this year... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Lower oil prices to support growth The recent sharp drop in global oil prices is a positive development for Emerging Asia. It will support growth in most economies and will put downward pressure on inflation, providing scope for... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A brief period of “good” deflation on its way We now think that a brief period of mild deflation in the UK is more likely than not. However, this should be the “good” type of deflation which will give a boost to the economy. 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) Wholesale price inflation edged up in December, but the big picture is that it remains close to five-year lows. What's more, our proxy for core WPI dropped sharply last month, suggesting that domestic... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What would keep the Fed on hold? Despite the prospect of inflation spending most of this year below zero and the mixed news on wages, we still believe that the Fed will raise rates by June at the latest. Nonetheless, it is worth... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish CPI (Dec.) The fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in December was smaller than expected but it is unlikely to alleviate the pressure on the Riksbank to take bolder action to boost inflation. 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Dec.) Inflation took another big step down in December and the halving in the oil price since the summer should mean that the UK comes within a whisker of deflation soon. But with the MPC focused on the... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish CPI (Dec. 14) The fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in December was smaller than expected but it is unlikely to alleviate the pressure on the Riksbank to take bolder action to boost inflation. 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) The rise in consumer price inflation in December was due in large part to price falls a year ago rather than any increases recently. The more significant point is that inflation remains subdued by... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: market tensions ease, but recession looms large The tensions in Russia’s financial markets triggered by last month’s ruble crisis seem to have eased over the past couple of weeks. But the first signs have emerged that the economy is falling into... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to focus on deflation, not politics Data last week, including the drop in HICP inflation to -0.2%, heightened the risk of a prolonged bout of deflation in the single currency area. But on the face of it at least, the escalating... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the UK experience deflation too? The halving of the oil price since the summer has already tipped the euro-zone into deflation and looks set to turn the headline inflation rate in the US and Japan negative shortly too. We still think... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Market moves provide a further fillip to growth The boost to economic activity from the further plunge in oil prices and decline in 10-year Treasury yields since late last year will more than offset any additional drag from the further rise in the... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: EMs in an era of low oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices will provide a welcome boost to growth in the majority of emerging economies in 2015, but at the cost of slower growth in much of the Middle East and deepening crises in a... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Dec.) The drop in Brazilian inflation in December was enough to ensure that the central bank met its target for 2014 but doesn’t spell the end of the country’s inflation battle. We expect it grind lower... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech Ind. Prod. (Nov.) & CPI (Dec.) The sharp fall in Czech inflation last month, to just 0.1% y/y, was due to both base effects and the impact of lower oil prices on fuel inflation. There is a risk that the headline inflation rate... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
