India Economics Update New RBI governor faces hard task in meeting targets CPI inflation data for August are likely to show that the headline rate eased a touch, but remained some way above the Reserve Bank’s 5.0% target for March 2017. With the new governor, Dr Urjit Patel... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Aug.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in August, to 8.0% y/y, is likely to be used as justification by the central bank for further modest interest rate cuts. Nonetheless, we remain of... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in sterling already supporting the economy While there are already signs of the inflationary impact of the fall in sterling starting to make its way through the supply chain, the drop appears to be providing some support to the economy. Indeed... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Aug.) Households have become more upbeat about the outlook for their personal finances, which suggests that the recent jump in the household saving rate should reverse before long. By contrast, the renewed... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus How to think about monetary policy after Rajan The appointment of Dr Urjit Patel as the new governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) gives a strong indication of policy continuity at the central bank, and strengthens our view that the easing... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB may extend QE programme again Recent news on the economy has reduced the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide further policy stimulus at its forthcoming policy meeting on 8th September. But the weakness of price... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Could policymakers cope with another downturn? Policymakers gathering in Jackson Hole last week highlighted that a fall in equilibrium real interest rates means that central banks may have little room to cut rates in the event of another recession... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) The unchanged headline inflation rate in August highlights the fact that price pressures in the euro-zone remain weak and boosts the case for more monetary easing from the ECB. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q2) The hit to Norway’s GDP growth from lower oil prices appears to be fading. Nevertheless, with growth still fairly slow and inflation set to fall sharply, we still expect the Norges Bank to loosen... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka holds rates, but further tightening still likely The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today left interest rates on hold despite a continued acceleration in credit growth, high inflation and a weak currency. We think another interest rate hike is... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Aug.) August’s slowdown in German inflation was weaker than most forecasters had expected last week, but was broadly consistent with the state-level data released this morning. While inflation should pick... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Aug.) August’s euro-zone Business and Consumer Survey suggests that growth has slowed and inflation expectations are weak. So the ECB will be under pressure to loosen monetary policy further at its meeting... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA not in a rush, but rates may fall to 1.0% next year Glenn Stevens is unlikely to end his decade as Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia with a bang, as interest rates will almost certainly be left at 1.5% at his last policy meeting on Tuesday 6th... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM food inflation to edge down, but it won’t collapse We expect food inflation in large parts of the EM world to ease in the coming months, which will provide some relief to policymakers in a number of high inflation economies, including Russia, Colombia... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) Today’s inflation figures confirm that the recent moderation in price pressures can no longer be blamed on cheaper energy. While economic activity is on the mend, the slump in import prices suggests... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latest rise in food inflation should prove short-lived Food inflation has risen further in several economies in Latin America over the past month. The increase has been especially sharp in Brazil and Colombia, but food inflation has also edged up in Chile... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
