Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth sinks as BRICs woes deepen EM growth appears to have sunk to a post-crisis low of around 4% y/y in the first quarter of this year, driven in large part by a deepening downturn in the BRICs. China has grabbed most of the... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The third straight fall in the manufacturing PMI confirms that the plunge in energy prices has failed to reinvigorate Japan's economy. 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1) The stability of the various measures of underlying inflation in the first quarter suggest that price pressures aren't as weak as we thought. Nonetheless, this is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) South African inflation picked up slightly in March, to 4.0%, but we expect that a combination of energy prices hikes and a weak rand will increase inflationary pressures going forward. Headline... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack January rate cut won't be enough insurance The futures market indicates that most investors are now convinced by the Bank of Canada's view that the January interest rate cut will be enough to prevent the economy from being derailed by the... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation starting to firm Core inflation is beginning to show signs of firming. The rebound in the annual core CPI inflation rate to 1.8% in March may not be enough to leave Fed officials "reasonably confident" that inflation... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Reasons to remain upbeat on Mexico Despite a recession in the mining sector and an impending fiscal squeeze, we remain upbeat about Mexico. A gradual improvement in the labour market and a likely recovery in the US, after a weak start... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack PBOC steps up policy support Sunday’s cut to the required reserve ratio for China’s banks signals a stepping-up of policy support. The 100bp cut was double the usual size and the first move on this scale since late 2008. It is... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1) The petrol-related plunge in headline CPI inflation, to a 15-year low of 0.1% in the first quarter from 0.8% in the fourth quarter, will grab all the headlines, but it is the weakness of underlying... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Retail Sales (Feb.) The rise in the official core inflation rate to 2.4%, from 2.1%, was a surprise, but the details showed that this was largely due to pass-through effects from the lower Canadian dollar, rather than... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook More winners than losers The pace of global growth slowed in the first quarter, but it is likely to recover during the rest of the year and in 2016. The windfall gains from lower oil prices, rising employment and continued... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Although headline consumer prices increased by a slightly smaller than expected 0.2% m/m in March (the consensus forecast was 0.3% m/m), there are now clear signs of a firming in underlying inflation... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Feb./Mar.) The UK’s employment miracle shows no signs of drawing to a close. And with some slack still left in the labour market and pay growth not yet threatening the 2% inflation target, the MPC remains under... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strong Turkish inflation is deep-rooted There is a growing debate in Turkey about what lies behind the strength of inflation, but we think this discussion has overlooked the absence of spare capacity. Without structural reforms to address... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Mar.) While consumer confidence continued to recover in March, households have so far preferred to save rather than to spend the windfall from lower energy prices. 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Ignore plunge in headline inflation, fret about the core We expect the consumer price data for the first quarter to show that headline inflation fell to 1% in Australia and to almost zero in New Zealand. Since these falls are due to the one-off effects of... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
