Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The sharp fall in Turkish inflation last month, to 8.2% y/y from 9.2% y/y, was an encouraging development, but core inflation remained extremely high. Elsewhere, December’s batch of manufacturing PMI... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Dec.) The decline in small business confidence to a seven-month low in December underlines that economic momentum in Japan remains sluggish. 24th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Sri Lanka faces tight election contest Sri Lanka’s presidential election, scheduled for 8 th January, is shaping up to be much closer than expected, with the current president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, now facing a genuine challenge from... 24th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Lat Am markets suffer end-year jitters Financial markets across Latin America have come under renewed pressure in the final weeks of this year. Part of the trigger has been renewed falls in oil prices. The currencies of two of the region’s... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia spirals into crisis The Russian ruble has stabilised in recent days, but only after the central bank introduced a raft of measures to limit ruble liquidity – including a massive hike in interest rates – and, perhaps more... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Can the Bank of Canada fight the US Fed? Household imbalances, an uneven export recovery and, more recently, the slump in oil prices are all downside risks to the economic and inflation outlook. That's three reasons for the Bank of Canada to... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The unexpected decline in the official core inflation rate to 2.1% in November, from 2.3%, supports the Bank of Canada's cautious neutral stance on the interest rate outlook. With the slump in oil... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What role for exchange rate ceilings? The Swiss National Bank introduced a negative deposit rate yesterday, but its main tool to combat the threat of deflation is a ceiling for the Swiss franc. Given the continued threat of deflation and... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A predictably weak year The euro-zone economy behaved largely as we anticipated in 2014, with growth remaining distinctly sluggish, inflation falling, the ECB forced into more policy action and the euro weakening. The... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Unemp. (Nov.) Data to the middle of this month suggest that inflation is on track to fall back within target range in December. However, we doubt that this will be enough to prevent policymakers from raising... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil price falls won’t let high inflation EMs off the hook Although the recent drop in oil prices will continue to exert downward pressure on inflation in most parts of the emerging world, it won’t provide a lasting solution for the economies with high... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Rate surge puts PBOC in a bind Interbank interest rates this week recorded their biggest increase in several months. The rate increase is much smaller than at this time last year but a key difference is that the People’s Bank cut... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What should we expect in 2015? Wage growth is set to remain sluggish next year and, with households also likely to be trying to rebuild their savings, we expect consumer spending to be subdued. In turn, this suggests that GDP... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Reasons for optimism as 2014 ends On the face of it, 2014 has been another disappointing year for the Indianeconomy. Growth over the first three quarters averaged just 5.2% y/y, only asmall improvement from the trough of 2012-2013 and... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack An unambiguous strengthening in activity The incoming news on activity has been unambiguously strong and, when taken together with the boost from the further fall in oil prices, has made us more confident that GDP will grow by at least 3%... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Downside risks multiplying Even with the US economic recovery moving into a higher gear, the outlook for Canada's economy is, at best, mediocre. Furthermore, there is now a significant risk that a perfect storm of a collapse in... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
