UK Economics Chart Pack Spending still on track for strongest growth since 2005 There is little reason to expect the strong growth in consumer spending seen so far this year to ease off soon. The latest business surveys indicate that employment will continue to grow rapidly over... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (May) While the rebound in the manufacturing PMI in May suggests that the sector is not doing as badly as we had feared, there is a long way to go to recoup the 4% fall in activity since January. 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank policy easing will need to be more aggressive The Riksbank’s third round of government bond buying got underway today. But we doubt that the programme will be enough to prevent the krona from appreciating and thereby depressing inflation. 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC underplays inflation and current account concerns The press release accompanying today’s Turkish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left unchanged, suggests that policymakers are increasingly concerned about the inflation outlook. But we still... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in South Africa rose to 4.5% in April, and we expect that it will continue to rise over the coming months. Accelerating inflation will put pressure on the Reserve Bank to raise interest... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Households well-placed to endure renewed fiscal squeeze Households have rarely had it so good – no inflation, strong jobs growth, reviving earnings, a breather from austerity and falling borrowing costs. As a result, we think that real household spending... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.) The UK has finally joined other advanced economies in experiencing deflation. This is a positive development and the risk that deflation becomes ingrained and so starts to have adverse effects remains... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Mar.) & Consumer Prices (Apr.) March’s euro-zone trade data suggest that the weakness of the euro has still had little impact on net exports, and therefore provided only modest support to the recovery. 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is globalisation dead? The past four years have seen the slowest pace of global economic integration since the Second World War. With trade talks stalled and most parts of the world already integrated into the global... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia held steady at 2.0% y/y in April as further weakness in food price pressures was offset by a pick-up in rental inflation. Looking ahead, we expect headline inflation to... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ still likely to ease before too long The Bank’s decision not to announce more stimulus at the end-April meeting will only make it more difficult to reach its 2%-inflation target, as any support from a weaker yen and rising import prices... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Gilt market ‘rout’ poses little threat to economy The recent sharp rise in government bond yields, most pronounced at the long end, has fuelled concerns about its potential adverse impact on the economy. After all, since it has not been accompanied... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Negative inflation, but for one month only Tuesday’s inflation figures look set to show that the UK slipped into deflation in April. But this is likely to have largely reflected the timing of Easter this year compared to last. Since the oil... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly When will housing rents stop falling? Because of its outsized weight in the consumer price basket, housing rent has a significant impact on inflation in Japan. Unfortunately for the Bank of Japan, it seems likely that rent will continue... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: poor corn harvest poses little inflation risk 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Following four straight increases, the small drop in consumer confidence in April is no disaster. What’s more, the Bank of Japan will have been pleased by the fact that inflation expectations are... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
