UK Economic Outlook Shrugging off Brexit worries for now While early post-referendum indicators of consumer spending have been fairly upbeat, spending growth is still set to slow following the vote to leave the EU. Labour market conditions are likely to... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 2.8% y/y from 2.7% y/y over July as a whole, means that the headline rate is on course to breach the central bank’s 3% target... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Aug.) - 16 Brazil’s mid-month inflation data have tended to overestimate inflation over the full month recently but even so the latest rise, from 8.9% y/y to 9.0% y/y in mid-August, is likely to cause some alarm... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rate cut in Iceland set to be a one-off Today’s rate cut by the Sedlabanki is likely to be a one-off. Indeed, the recent acceleration of economic growth suggests that the risks to the Bank’s new inflation forecasts are tilted to the upside... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) South African inflation eased from 6.3% y/y in June to a weaker-than-expected 6.0% in July, but we still think that inflation will pick up again later this year, prompting the Reserve Bank to hike... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Currencies remain a concern While the recent fall in the cash rate to record lows in Australia and New Zealand should help to support household spending, the effect on other areas of the economy may be more limited. For one, we... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Two major reasons for cheer Over the past month, two key developments in India have given investors reason to cheer. The first is the passage of the long-awaited Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill, which could bring huge benefits... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The third straight rise in the manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector is coping quite well with the sharp strengthening of the exchange rate since the start of the year. 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul.) Saudi inflation edged down in July to its lowest rate this year, at 3.8% y/y, and further ahead the weakness of economic activity means that headline inflation will fall further over the next twelve... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Gilt yields set to remain very low for a long while yet The prospect of a further prolonged period of ultra-loose monetary policy suggests that government bond yields are set to remain markedly low for a long time yet. Admittedly, we think Treasury yields... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Regional growth to improve as Brazil exits recession The downturn in Latin America is starting to bottom out and growth should return as we enter 2017. The region’s largest economy – Brazil – is turning the corner and our growth forecasts for the next... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Choice of new RBI governor signals policy continuity The announcement over the weekend that Dr Urjit Patel, a current deputy governor, will take over as governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in September points to policy continuity and strengthens... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: First hard data give some cause for optimism The first raft of official data covering the post-referendum period, released this week, was surprisingly upbeat in the main. Overall, the data add weight to our view that while the economy is set to... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Retail Sales (Jun.) A drop back in gasoline prices was enough to push the annual CPI inflation rate back down to 1.3% in July, from 1.5%. The core inflation rate was unchanged at 2.1% last month, however, as the Canadian... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will underlying inflation turn negative? Our base case is that the recent strengthening of the yen will result in a further moderation in inflation excluding fresh food and energy towards zero. However, the magnitude of recent exchange rate... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why wage growth will stay low While the latest data showed that employment growth has surged in Australia and New Zealand and the unemployment rate has edged down in both economies recently, this won’t be enough to generate... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
