Africa Economic Outlook Slowest regional growth since the late 1990s Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to slow to its weakest pace since the late 1990s next year. There are several drivers of this weakness, but a common theme is that the global commodities boom... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf economies take plunge in oil prices in their stride The slump in oil prices has caused the Gulf’s equity markets to tumble, but the region’s governments still seem to be unfazed. Oman aside, no country has announced cuts in public spending. And Saudi... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to plunge...temporarily The average inflation rate in the G7 is likely to fall to only around 1% next year because of the collapse in oil prices. A growing number of economies will experience a period of outright deflation... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q3) Ireland’s small gain in GDP in Q3 leaves it on track to expand by close to 5% this year. But the published data may exaggerate the underlying strength of the economy. 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish CPI (Nov.) The renewed fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in November will maintain the pressure on the Riksbank to push back the date at which it first expects to raise rates from the middle of 2016 when... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov.) The fall in Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate in November to a two-and-a-half year low probably marks the trough and we expect it to rise gradually to 3.0-3.5% over the coming year. 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Acc. (Oct.) & Hungary CPI (Nov.) Turkey’s current account deficit continued to decline in October and the fall in oil prices means it should narrow even further, towards 5% of GDP, over the coming months. Meanwhile, Hungary’s CPI... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish CPI (Nov. 14) The renewed fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in November will maintain the pressure on the Riksbank to push back the date at which it first expects to raise rates from the middle of 2016 when... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed to drop “considerable time” language The upcoming two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (17th December), should provide a clear signal whether our non-consensus call that the Fed will hike rates as soon as next March is... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Four charts that show Venezuela is in a crisis All of the signs suggest that Venezuela is already suffering an economic crisis, making it highly likely that the government will default on its foreign currency debt. 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) Egyptian inflation fell sharply last month on the back of easing food price pressures. If inflation remains in single digits over the coming months, it could prompt the Central Bank of Egypt to cut... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Nov.) South Africa’s headline rate of inflation slowed slightly in November. We think that it will fall further in the coming months, but core price pressures are likely to remain strong. As a result, we... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The renewed fall in consumer confidence last month shows that Abenomics provides little reason to cheer for Japan’s households. 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) A fall in inflation to a five-year low last month may add to deflation fears but we think such concerns are overplayed. Easing inflation is being driven by falls in global commodity prices which... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Any rebound in house price inflation will be temporary Tighter supply conditions suggest that the moderation in house price inflation may be about to go into reverse. So, too, do solid rates of economic growth and job creation as well as tentative signs... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) The slight fall in Mexican inflation to 4.2% y/y last month suggests that the CPI rate has peaked and that it is on course to fall to the central bank’s 3% target by the second quarter of next year. 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
