UK Data Response Trade (Mar.) Although all eyes this morning have been on the general election result, March’s trade figures have also been released and help to explain some of the slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter. 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will have to ease more before too long The Bank of Japan’s decision not to step up the pace of easing at the end of April has prompted us to pare back our expectations for yen depreciation in the near term. But we still think that... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Mar.) & Hungary CPI (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected 4.7% y/y rise in Turkish industrial production in March provides much-needed good news for President Erdogan ahead of next month’s election. But even so, growth in industry... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) Annual inflation in Mexico held steady at 3.1% for the second consecutive month in April and the recent stabilisation of the peso against the dollar should help to ease fears that inflation will... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Consumers yet to spend their oil windfall... GDP growth was faster in the euro-zone than in the US in Q1, but we don’t expect this to be the start of a new trend. The single currency area has received a temporary boost from the fall in the euro... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reserve Bank on course to meet 2016 inflation target Inflation is likely to have remained subdued by past standards in April, with a small pick-up in transport inflation being offset by muted food and core price pressures. The big picture is that the... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Few signs of election uncertainty undermining recovery Although GDP posted its smallest quarterly rise since 2012 in the first quarter of this year, we doubt that the economy is on the cusp of a renewed slowdown. The business surveys suggest that Q1’s 0.3... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan interest rates held, hike likely later this year Kenya’s Monetary Policy Committee kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.50% today, but the Committee’s increasingly hawkish tone leads us to believe that rate hikes will come in late 2015... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Apr.) The fall in Russian inflation last month, to 16.4% y/y, suggests that it has passed its peak. As the effects of last year’s fall in the ruble unwind, we expect inflation to ease gradually over the... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Election just one reason to keep rates on hold We doubt that the Monetary Policy Committee would want to change monetary policy so close to a general election, especially when a new government might not even have been formed by the time of this... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update 2% won’t be the floor The cut in interest rates to a new record low of 2.00%, from 2.25%, announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) today is unlikely to be the last in this cycle. Our forecast that both GDP growth... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped in April, underpinning the difficulties facing the sector. Looking ahead, with progress on creating a favourable business environment remaining slow, a boom in... 4th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Deflation dangers have not yet lifted April’s rise in euro-zone CPI inflation to zero left the latest bout of falling prices shorter, at four months, than that seen back in 2009. But with fundamental forces still bearing down on inflation... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Household Spending, Consumer Prices & Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.) While the labour market continues to tighten, inflation remains near zero and wages are barely rising. The BoJ will have to step up the pace of easing before long. 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Recovery falters The recovery that was seemingly underway in most parts of Latin America towards the end of last year appears to have faltered in recent months. Indeed, our proprietary GDP Tracker suggests that the... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Renewed yen weakness and Nikkei strength lie ahead We remain positive on the outlook for Japanese equities and negative on the yen, despite the Bank of Japan’s failure to announce additional monetary stimulus today. 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
