Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Aug.) August’s inflation data are not going to provide any reassurance to Brazilian policymakers that now is the time to begin lowering interest rates. The headline inflation rate rose to a three-month high... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Did the MPC jump the gun in August? The resilience of the recent data has prompted some commentators to question whether the MPC was wrong to cut Bank Rate to 0.25% and announce new gilt purchases of £60bn and corporate bond purchases... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation expectations aren’t a barrier to rate cuts in Russia Russia’s Central Bank has put increasing emphasis on the importance of inflation expectations in making monetary policy decisions, but it seems that these tend to be a lagging, rather than a leading... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) Inflation softened by more than expected last month but we think the decline will prove short-lived and doubt that it will spark further monetary easing by the People’s Bank. 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) The weaker-than-expected 2.7% y/y increase in Mexican consumer prices in August, coming alongside further government spending cuts expected to be announced in the 2017 budget later today, strengthens... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Aug.) The sharp drop in Chilean inflation in August takes it firmly back within the central bank’s target range and reinforces our view that interest rates are likely to remain on hold for a prolonged... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further sharp rise in Egyptian inflation, to 15.5% y/y in August, is likely to prompt the central bank to hike interest rates at its meeting later this month. With further subsidy cuts on the... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Retail sales’ strong start to Q3 won’t be sustained The first official euro-zone data release for July – retail sales – suggested that the consumer sector made a strong start to Q3. Indeed, the 1.1% rise in sales pushed the annual growth rate up to 2.7... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update JOLT survey reveals tightening labour market The rise in the job openings rate to a record high of 3.9% in July, from 3.8%, suggests that, despite the slowdown in payroll gains in August, labour market conditions continue to tighten, which... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada opens door to rate cut The Bank of Canada issued a relatively dovish statement today, warning that “risks to the profile for inflation have tilted somewhat to the downside since July”. 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fall in inflation will be short-lived Consumer price inflation is likely to have fallen further in August, dragged down by a drop in food price inflation. But this will mask a continued pick-up in broader price pressures that is set to... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Real rates in Sweden set to fall to 40-year low With the Riksbank on hold, rising inflation means that real interest rates in Sweden are set to drop to a 40-year low. Such an accommodative stance seems unnecessary given the sound economic outlook... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2) & CPI (Aug.) Q2’s healthy rise in Swiss GDP suggests that the economy was coping well with the franc’s continued strength, but the increase was flattered by temporary factors. And while CPI inflation edged up in... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2) & CPI (Aug.) Q2’s healthy rise in Swiss GDP suggests that the economy was coping well with the franc’s continued strength, but the increase was flattered by temporary factors. And while CPI inflation edged up in... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Is the Philippines overheating? Rapid economic growth, surging imports and strong credit growth have fuelled fears that the Philippines is overheating and that the central bank will be soon be forced to hike interest rates to bring... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) The fall in Russian inflation to 6.9% y/y in August, coming alongside last month’s drop in household inflation expectations, reinforces our view that the central bank will resume its easing cycle... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
