Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) The jump in Egyptian inflation to 13.1% y/y in May was almost entirely driven a sharp rise in food inflation and, as a result, we don’t expect it to have an impact on the MPC’s rate decision tomorrow... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s Sedlabanki begins hiking cycle Iceland’s central bank raised its main interest rates by 50bp today, as expected, in what looks likely to be the beginning of a tightening cycle designed to counter strong domestic demand growth and... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) If there were any lingering concerns that the weaker peso might trigger a rise in inflation in Mexico, the fact that CPI fell to below its 3% target last month should quash them. This supports our... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for crisis-stricken Venezuela? With Venezuela’s economic crisis intensifying, attention is starting to focus on how the country might get out of this mess. Two options have been suggested in recent weeks – one is the establishment... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q1) The second estimate and breakdown of euro-zone GDP in Q1 confirmed that growth in the early months of the year was driven by domestic demand, presumably partly reflecting the positive effects of lower... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech & Hungary CPI (May) Stronger-than-expected inflation figures for last month in both the Czech Republic and Hungary will remove any lingering concerns about deflation. However, large amounts of spare capacity will keep... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (May) The small drop in consumer confidence last month masks a rebound in households’ income expectations, which suggests that they may increasingly be willing to spend some of the windfall from lower... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (May.) Today's data support our view that, the usual volatility in food inflation aside, price pressures are rising and that deflation concerns are overplayed. 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Has food price inflation reached a trough? There are good reasons to think that food price inflation has reached a trough. That said, intense supermarket competition seems unlikely to lift soon, meaning that inflation in the sector could... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (May) The further decline in inflation in Chile last month means that the annual rate is now right on the upper bound of the target range, having spent over a year above the 4% threshold. The continued fall... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Monsoon threat to inflation overplayed Inflation is likely to have stayed subdued in May. There are rising concerns that a weaker-than-normal monsoon could push inflation up in the months ahead. But we remain sanguine: many factors in... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Prospects diverge Emerging Europe’s economy is likely to contract this year for the first time since 2009, but prospects differ substantially across the region. In Russia, while financial strains have eased, the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Price pressures on the rise A seasonal slide in vegetable prices that should prove short-lived may have pulled inflation down in May. But the bigger picture is that underlying price pressures appear to have picked up. We expect... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Rise in oil prices has eased risk of deflation The rebound in global oil prices since January means it is all but certain that headline inflation in advanced economies will pick up sharply towards the end of the year. For most countries, this has... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (May) The drop in Russian inflation to 15.8% y/y in May confirms that it has now passed its peak. We expect inflation to ease slowly over the next three to six months before falling sharply around the turn... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Inflation risks to keep MPC on hold throughout 2015 With the UK in deflation, growth indicators turning south and the Greek saga casting a shadow over the outlook, the MPC’s decision to keep interest rates on hold is likely to have been unanimous again... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
