Emerging Europe Economics Focus Polish deflation: less than meets the eye? The persistent depth of deflation in Poland, particularly when compared with the rest of Central Europe, appears to be due largely to measurement issues, rather than significantly weaker domestic... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation to remain close to target We think that consumer price inflation held steady April as the recent slowdown in food inflation appears to have run its course. With inflation only just below the RBI's 5.0% target for March 2017... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How will the Inflation Report deal with Brexit risk? We doubt that the MPC will model separate ‘remain’ and ‘leave’ scenarios in its Inflation Report next week. But Brexit uncertainty will still affect its forecasts via its assumptions about the... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Pre-election Budget postpones fiscal pain While the Budget has been badged as focusing on “jobs and growth”, Treasurer Scott Morrison was clearly thinking about his own job and the probable Federal election on 2nd July when he crafted it... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Apr.) The sharper-than-expected decline in Turkish inflation last month, to 6.6% y/y, supports our view that the central bank’s current easing cycle has further to run. However, the fall in the headline... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rate cut to be followed by further reduction to 1.5% Today’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 2.0% to 1.75% will help solve the economy’s twin problems of too slow growth and too low underlying inflation. It also... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Adjustment to low oil prices not going to plan Although the economy likely grew strongly in the first quarter, beneath the surface we aren’t convinced that the economy is still struggling to adjust to lower energy prices, despite the weaker... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Kenya Consumer Prices (Apr.) While inflation is picking up in most of Africa, April’s CPI data showed that price pressures are weakening in Kenya. We expect that this will allow the Central Bank of Kenya to cut rates by 50bp... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Preliminary Flash GDP (Q1) & Flash CPI (Apr.) The euro-zone’s new earlier (“preliminary flash”) estimate of GDP confirmed the message from country data that the economy regained some pace in Q1 after the slowdown in H2 last year. But growth is... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf countries continue adjustment to cheap oil Saudi Arabia’s ambitious plans to overhaul its economy have grabbed the headlines in recent days, but the past month has seen a number of other Gulf countries announce further measures to deal with... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Conditions improve, but activity remains depressed The latest activity data from across Latin America have been encouraging, but the bigger picture is that the region’s economy is still struggling. Industrial and retail output in Brazil fell at a... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Has property finally turned the corner? A recovery in China’s property market appears to be giving a lift to economic growth. This should continue for a few quarters. But the turnaround does not signal that the drawn-out correction in China... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Apr.) April’s fall in German consumer price inflation back to negative territory and the continued weakness of the core rate will further raise the pressure on the ECB to do more to hit its inflation target... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Assessing the impact of a strong monsoon Early forecasts of a stronger-than-normal monsoon in India this year have raised hopes of a boost to GDP growth and a drop in inflation as agricultural production gets ramped up. But the early... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Household Spending, Retail Sales, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Mar.) While consumer spending and industrial production rebounded in March, the outlook for the second quarter is mixed. With price pressures moderating, we retain our forecast that the Bank of Japan will... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Drought hits agricultural output in Thailand and Vietnam Vietnam and Thailand are facing their worst drought in decades, with water levels in the Mekong River at their lowest since 1926. The drought is already having an impact on growth. A decline in... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
