Africa Economics Update South Africa: Growth slowed in Q1 Today’s retail figures show that consumer spending was robust in Q1. The comparison with a very strong result in Q4 will depress q/q GDP growth this quarter, but we don’t think that this marks a... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Mar.) While the bigger-than-expected fall in inflation in March means that another hike in interest rates in May is now less clear cut, we nonetheless think that it remains more likely than not. 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Mar.) Headline wholesale price inflation held steady in March. But with core price pressures still elevated, we remain comfortable with our view that policy rate hikes are likely later this year. 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Economic recovery will peak this year We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by South Africa and Nigeria, where growth is set to pick up by more than... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru rates on hold, easing cycle probably over Peru’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.75% last night and, while the statement gave little away regarding future moves, we think the easing cycle is probably over. 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA facing up to reality The Reserve Bank of Australia’s apparent downward revision to its previously published 3.0% GDP growth forecast for 2018 shows once again that the RBA has been too hopeful. We suspect it will also... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) The slight drop in consumer price inflation in March was due to another decline in food and fuel inflation. Core inflation picked up and is likely to accelerate further. As such, we remain comfortable... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Mar.) Although headline inflation increased to the Riksbank’s target in March, inflation excluding energy remained somewhat weaker. At its April meeting, we expect the Bank to signal that it will raise... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation in Nigeria slowed sharply last month, and we think that it will continue to ease over the coming months. This will prompt policymakers to cut their key rate from 14.00% to 12.00% by year end... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rebound in core CPI inflation to a 13-month high of 2.1% in March, from 1.8%, was partly driven by base effects. But the recent strengthening of monthly price pressures suggests that core... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Tight labour market finally boosting pay Revised data show that regular earnings expanded at the fastest pace in two decades at the start of this year, underlining that the tight labour market is finally generating stronger cost pressures... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Today’s softer-than-expected inflation data are consistent with our view that cooling price pressures will open the door to further monetary easing in the coming quarters. 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Spanish inflation set to pick up? Despite Spain’s recent strong run of form and the prospect of higher wage growth, we suspect that core inflation will remain subdued at close to 1% this year and next. With inflation set to remain in... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Mar.) Brazilian inflation dipped again in March but our sense is that policymakers will start to focus less on the incoming inflation data and more on rising political risks and the associated drop in the... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Mar.) March’s weak inflation data in Norway strengthen the case for the Norges Bank to move only very slowly towards tightening monetary policy. We suspect that it will wait until 2019 to raise interest... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) The further decline in Egyptian inflation last month, to 13.3% y/y, means the central bank will continue its easing cycle when it next meets in mid-May. We have pencilled in another 100bp reduction in... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
