US Data Response Employment Report (June 2016) The 287,000 surge in non-farm payrolls in June suggests that the sharp slowdown in the preceding months was nothing more than ablip. Fed officials will want to see evidence of a more sustained... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.) The drop in Brazil inflation, from 9.3% in May to 8.9% in June, should be followed by further falls over the coming months. That said, our view remains that the central bank will resist lowering... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A look ahead to 2018 Looser fiscal policy is likely to support an acceleration in economic growth next year but it will fizzle out again in 2018 leaving ample amounts of spare capacity and little in the way of... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun 2016) The modest fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate in June, to 2.5% y/y from 2.6% y/y in May, hides the fact that core inflation pressures are creeping up. Coupled with continued pressure on the peso... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Floods add risks to inflation outlook Consumer price inflation is likely to have fallen in June on the back of a further decline in food price inflation. Looking ahead, while we expect inflation in the second half of 2016 to be broadly... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation set to fall but interest rate cuts to be gradual We expect inflation in Brazil to fall back over the next year but, despite a recent repricing, the centralbank may still not cut interest rates as quickly as the markets expect. 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM pick-up to prove short-lived EM growth is likely to accelerate over the second half of this year, but a downward shift in potential growth means the recovery could hit the buffers in 2017-18. 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Growth starting to slow June’s survey data confirmed that GDP growth in Q2 is very unlikely to have matched Q1’s 0.6% quarterly expansion, with both the EC Survey and the PMI appearing consistent with around a 0.3% rise... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jun.) The much sharper-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation last month, to 7.6% y/y, confirms our view that the recent falls in the headline rate were unsustainable. The central bank might still use last... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How far will inflation rise? Although the slide in the trade-weighted sterling index of a little below 10% since the referendum result will give exporters a much-needed boost to their competitiveness, it will also lift the prices... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The delay of the sales tax hike provided a boost to household sentiment in June. However, the collapse in household inflation expectations is clearly worrying. 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) While the June PMIs for Emerging Asia were generally uninspiring, in the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, the surveys suggest that manufacturing conditions are at least... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households can cope with lower wealth Although the recent poor performance of equity prices means that household wealth may decline in the first half of the year, we doubt this will significantly restrain consumption growth. Households... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q2) While the Tankan’s headline index held steady last quarter, the survey doesn’t capture the impact of Brexit in full. What’s more, conditions for non-manufacturers worsened. 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (May) While the labour market remains tight, consumer spending probably slowed last quarter. With underlying inflation now clearly weakening, we retain our view that the Bank of Japan will announce more... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What next for monetary policy in Taiwan? With the economy struggling badly and inflationary pressures very low, Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today cuts its discount rate by a further 12.5 basis points to 1.375%. Given the poor outlook for... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
