Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lessons on unemployment and inflation If the Reserve Bank of Australia were to learn from its recent forecasting failures, it would conclude that the unemployment rate will continue to fall by more than it expects but that underlying... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Nordic house price inflation slowing House price inflation in several Nordic economies is slowing, and in some cases sharply. In Sweden housing inflation fell to 6.7% in October, its slowest in four years. And in Stockholm, where prices... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Will the Nikkei continue to outperform? The Nikkei is near its highest in 25 years, buoyed by a 200% rise in net profits since PM Abe returned to power five years ago. Looking ahead, we expect the yen to weaken to 120 by the end of next... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) A drop back in energy prices last month pushed headline down to 2.0% from 2.2%, but there are clear signs that underlying price pressures are on the rise again. Core inflation increased for the first... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic monetary policy to be unchanged until 2019 Following today’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) appears to have reached the end of its loosening cycle. We expect the Bank to keep rates on hold until... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.) Last month’s Nigerian inflation reading of 15.9% y/y means that, although the central bank has signalled that it intends to cut interest rates, this is unlikely to come at next week’s meeting. We... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q3) Wage growth for the majority of workers may have slowed further in the third quarter as the entire rise from 1.9% in the second quarter to 2.0% was probably due to the larger-than-usual increase in... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q3) The longest expansion since 2001 continued in the third quarter. However, the economy is running into capacity constraints and we expect growth to slow next year. 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Oct.) The recent upward trend in CPI inflation came to a halt in October. And while inflation could still inch up a little further in November, it is now likely to be close to its peak. 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swe. Consumer Prices (Oct.), Nor. & Fin. GDP (Q3) As October’s drop in Swedish inflation was almost entirely due to energy, we are not convinced that it means QE will be extended in December. Meanwhile, following stronger-than-expected GDP growth in... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) Much like the consumer price inflation data released yesterday, wholesale price inflation came in above expectations in October. Policymakers put less weight on the WPI measure, but any lingering... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will inflation ever pick up again? We think the average inflation rate in advanced economies will remain lower than it was in the pre-crisis period for the foreseeable future, for several reasons. In some economies, there is more spare... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) Indian consumer price inflation accelerated in October, and looks set to rise further over the coming months. As such, there is no scope for further monetary loosening. 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Higher oil prices not a major threat to the inflation outlook As a result of the rise in oil prices in recent weeks, CPI inflation will certainly be a bit higher than we had previously anticipated in the near term. This suggests that it won’t be long before the... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada likely on hold until well into 2018 Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz’s speech earlier this week was too dismissive of the current weakness of underlying inflation, although that isn’t a surprise given the Bank’s interest rate hikes... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Oct.) The rise in Brazilian inflation from 2.5% y/y in September to 2.7% y/y in October, is likely to be the start of a gradual upwards trend. Nevertheless, we expect inflation to remain below the central... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
