Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The fall in Mexican inflation in March was broad-based, and we expect it to continue easing over the course of this year. The data support our view – which the markets have now come round to – that... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The recent volatility in global stock markets has undermined households’ confidence in their personal wealth. But this doesn’t seem to affect their willingness to spend much. 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The economic impact of the monsoon Early forecasts of “average” levels of rainfall during this year’s monsoon have led to a rush of speculation on the potential economic impact. But the early forecasts are prone to revision and, in any... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade tensions to remain at the top of the agenda The escalating threats over tariffs between the US and China have dominated the headlines this week. But next week could bring the more positive news of a ‘preliminary’ deal on NAFTA. Reports suggest... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth may have peaked in Q1 The weakness of some recent economic data and business surveys has raised concerns that the global expansion is running out of steam. But we estimate that world GDP growth picked up a bit in the first... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Mar.) The rise in Russian inflation, to 2.4% y/y, last month confirms that the headline rate has passed its trough and we expect it to drift up over the rest of the year as food inflation strengthens. But... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Mar.) The larger-than-expected decline in Chilean inflation, from 2.0% y/y in February to 1.8% y/y in March, is unlikely to convince the central bank to restart its easing cycle. We expect inflation to rise... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Core inflation to remain elevated Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased in February, due to a further drop in food inflation. But core price pressures are still building. We think this will ultimately prompt the Reserve... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The lira’s fall and what it means for inflation and rates The fall in the Turkish lira seen in the past few weeks doesn’t look large enough (yet) to prevent inflation from easing later in the year and to prompt a monetary policy response, not least given... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Lending data add to evidence that growth has peaked Euro-zone money and lending growth slowed in February, adding to the evidence from the official data and business surveys that economic growth has peaked. Growth in “narrow” money – which is the sum... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rising trade tensions increase upside risks to inflation We think consumer price inflation will have risen further last month to a fresh multi-year high, boosted by a rise in food price inflation. This probably marks the peak for inflation this year, though... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Trade war fears mount The growing threat of a US-China trade war is the key risk to the outlook. The tariff measures announced so far don’t amount to much, but any escalation in trade tensions that leads to a significant... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Mar.) The renewed rise in Swiss inflation in March will be welcomed by the Swiss National Bank. But with pipeline price pressures still very subdued, we doubt that the SNB will alter its ultra-accommodative... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) & Unemployment (Feb.) February’s fall in euro-zone unemployment to its lowest level since late 2008 is good news for the ECB. But with core inflation remained weak in March, so the Bank will continue to stress its patient... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Talking the exit talk The Bank of Japan has become more vocal about its desire to exit the current ultra-loose policy settings. But with concerns about the impact of low policy rates on financial intermediation overblown... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How will Germany fare under its new Government? The new German Government plans a fiscal boost equivalent to around 0.4% of GDP per year during its term. Increased spending on child benefits, pensions and refugee integration will support consumer... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
