Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian and Danish Consumer Prices (Oct.) The sharp decline in inflation over the past 15 months has largely run its course, but it is unlikely to rebound strongly. We think that core inflation will remain well below the Norges Bank’s 2.5%... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why is wage growth still subdued? Wage growth is likely to pick up over coming months as the labour market remains extremely tight. But unusually low job mobility in Japan, which is linked to the widespread use of seniority wages and... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Markets underestimating Riksbank rate rises As today’s minutes show few signs that policymakers are concerned about the economy overheating, we have pushed back our forecast for a rate rise to September 2018. But we still expect rates to be... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further drop in Egyptian inflation in October, to 30.8% y/y from 31.6% y/y in September, is welcome but probably not enough for the central bank to cut interest rates at its meeting next week. We... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) Higher-than-expected inflation last month means that the China reflation story remains alive for now. But with the economy set to soften in the coming quarters and current price gains partly the... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected pick-up in Chilean inflation in October is likely to ease fears among the central bank’s Board that below-target inflation is becoming entrenched. Even so, with inflation... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation will resume accelerating soon We think that consumer price inflation held steady in October as a slight rise in food inflation was offset by a drop in fuel inflation. But with core price pressures building, inflation is likely to... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) The fall in Russian inflation to 2.7% y/y in October means another 25bp cut at the central bank’s Board meeting in December is highly likely. Inflation has probably reached a trough, but we expect the... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) Although retail sales rose in September, the increase was not sufficient for the sector to match Q2’s performance in Q3. This suggests that total household spending was behind the slowdown in... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Oct.) Today’s BRC survey adds to the evidence from the CBI last week that October was a poor month for retailers. However, that is at least partly down to unseasonably warm weather which looks to have... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) & Producer Prices (Sep.) The final estimate of October’s euro-zone Composite PMI confirmed that the economy made a strong start to Q4. But there are still only tentative signs that inflationary pressures are building. 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Oct.) & Swedish Production Index. (Sep.) October’s weak Swiss inflation data support our view that SNB interest rate hikes are a very distant prospect. Elsewhere, Swedish production data suggest that quarterly GDP growth slowed in Q3. 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New CPI weights mean sub-2% inflation lasts longer The new CPI spending weights suggest that inflation will be 0.2 percentage points lower than otherwise over the next two years and therefore support our view that underlying inflation will stay below... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Has Japan overcome deflation? Suggestions from Japan’s government that it has vanquished deflation are premature when wages are barely rising, core inflation is close to zero and inflation expectations are lower than a few years... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to rise further We expect CPI inflation to have rebounded in October driven by a rise in food price inflation. The core rate, which hit a six-year high in September, will likely have edged up too. Looking ahead, a... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Oct.) The jump in Turkish inflation last month, to 11.9% y/y, was worryingly broad based. There are reasons to think that inflation will begin to fall significantly from December, but in the near-term... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
