Japan Economics Update Should the BoJ become more flexible? Doing away with a specific timeframe for reaching 2% inflation would sow doubts about policymakers’ commitment to the 2%-target and would be a major step backwards. Instead, more stimulus is needed to... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary hints at further unconventional easing Hungary’s MPC made it clear today that further interest rate cuts are unlikely. And while the Council hinted at more “unconventional” policy loosening, we doubt that this would have a significant... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How significant is the slide in inflation expectations? Many measures of inflation expectations are at, or close to, record lows. We do not think this means that the world as a whole is heading for a long period of very low inflation, or even deflation... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian interest rates to fall by more than most expect The decision this month by Russia’s central bank to lower interest rates after a hiatus of close to a year has been followed by fairly hawkish comments from policymakers making clear that this does... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May) Saudi inflation edged down for a second consecutive month in May, although it remained elevated due to the energy and water tariff hikes earlier in the year. Further ahead, with economic growth... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Governor Rajan to step down, all eyes now on successor The announcement from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan that he will stand down at the end of his current contract in September is likely to put local financial markets under pressure in the near term... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) Core CPI inflation dropped back only slightly to 2.1% in May, from 2.2%, but it should decline more markedly in the second half of this year, as the inflationary impact from the earlier slump in the... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the risks from populism Concerns about the emergence of economic populism in Central and Eastern Europe are on the rise once again. This is already weighing on local financial markets and, although it’s not likely to have an... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) Headline CPI inflation remained well below the Fed’s target in May, but base effects will push it well above 2% by early next year. Both headline and core consumer prices increased by a solid 0.2% m/m... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Referendum effects muddy picture for MPC The MPC today repeated its warnings about the potential adverse effects on the economy of a Brexit , but reiterated that the policy implications of a Brexit would not be clear-cut. Meanwhile, if the... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB holds back ammunition for possible Brexit The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left interest rates on hold as expected today, but it will continue to intervene in FX markets if needed, as is likely in the run-up to the UK referendum. An actual... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First reflections on Temer’s first month Michel Temer’s first month as interim president of Brazil has been a mix of the good (eye-catching economic reforms) and the bad (three members of government, including the transparency minister, have... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Pressures on Saudi riyal should start to ease Speculation has mounted in recent weeks that Saudi Arabia will devalue the riyal. For our part, we have long argued that policymakers would be loath to abandon the dollar peg. And, as we explain in... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Official UK House Price Index (Apr.) The new official UK house price index reported that house price inflation slowed a touch in April. And a new breakdown of the data showed that price pressures were strongest for newbuild homes and... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (May) May’s inflation figures showed that price pressures in the economy remain subdued. However, inflation should still gather more pace next year, regardless of which way the EU referendum vote goes next... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (May) Sweden’s inflation rate fell by more than expected in May. With underlying price pressures still largely absent, the Riksbank may well need to take further policy action. 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
