Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s small pick-up in euro-zone headline inflation is unlikely to deter the ECB from announcing further policy stimulus next week. Indeed, underlying price pressures remain subdued and inflation... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Talk of rate hikes is premature The Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to play either Santa or Scrooge at its meeting on Tuesday 6th December, as it will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5%. And we believe that... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s German inflation data suggest that euro-zone inflation was unchanged at a low level. And while energy effects should cause headline inflation to rise sharply in the months ahead, the German... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Exporters still stuck in low growth gear The continuing sluggish performance by export-orientated manufacturers this year is another reason to believe that the Bank of Canada will reduce interest rates soon. In contrast to market... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Policy loosening will proceed gradually The Central Bank of Kenya has paused its loosening cycle for now, but further cuts are likely in 2017. We expect that the bank’s key policy rate will end 2017 at 9.00%. 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Trump win raises prospect of fiscal stimulus Donald Trump’s election victory has raised the prospect of a major fiscal stimulus next year, at a time when the economy is already close to full employment. The subsequent surge in Treasury yields... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt’s pound float: short-term pain, long-term gain The 50% fall in the Egyptian pound against the US dollar since the central bank floated the currency at the start of November will cause economic growth to slow sharply in the coming quarters... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) October’s euro-zone money and credit data remain consistent with steady economic growth. But a renewed pick-up in money and lending growth will be needed before the ECB can feel comfortable about... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB must do more despite rising inflation expectations According to both market measures and survey measures, inflation expectations have been rising. Yet both short and longer-term inflation expectations remain undesirably low. And while the recent... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the OBR too gloomy about Brexit? The Office for Budget Responsibility’s economic forecasts garnered more attention than usual after last week’s Autumn Statement, and have been criticised by some for being too gloomy on Brexit. On the... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) While underlying inflation edged up in October, past falls in import prices may still push underlying inflation towards zero by year-end. But with the yen now weakening again and spare capacity... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Nov.) Mexican inflation continued to climb in the first half of November, rising to 3.3% y/y from 3.1% y/y over the whole of October. And, following the sharp depreciation of the peso over recent weeks, we... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates on hold, but rhetoric turns hawkish Today’s press conference saw the SARB leave rates on hold but take a notably hawkish tone.Policymakers seem to be rowing back their claim that the tighten cycle is coming to an end. 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Anti-corruption drive has further to run The government’s shock demonetisation announcement earlier this month was its boldest measure yet to tackle corruption and formalise large parts of the shadow economy, but it is unlikely to be the... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Having slowed in Q3, we expect growth in Emerging Europe to recover over the course of the next year as Russia continues to pull out of recession and investment in the Central European economies... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth has further to rise We estimate that non-farm payroll employment growth picked up to 180,000 in November, which was probably enough to cut the unemployment rate to 4.8%. Annual wage growth probably held steady at a seven... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
