Global Inflation Watch Core inflation likely to rise only gradually Many advanced economies are close to full employment, but this is likely to lead to only a small increase in price pressures. We expect the core inflation rate to edge up in the euro-zone, Japan and... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone withstand ECB tapering? We think that the euro-zone economic recovery is strong enough to cope with a gradual removal of policy support by the ECB over the coming years. The weak outlook for inflation will allow the ECB to... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect in 2018 We expect Japan’s GDP growth to slow next year as the economy is now operating above capacity. Price and wage pressures should strengthen somewhat but inflation will remain well below the Bank of... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) Today’s Tankan survey showed that business conditions didn’t improve much further this quarter which suggests that growth is now slowing. Nonetheless, capacity and staff shortages continue to... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to look out for in Saudi Arabia’s 2018 budget The recent rise in oil prices has raised some hopes that Saudi Arabia’s 2018 budget – to be announced next week – will unveil a shift towards looser fiscal policy to support the economy. However, we... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dovish ECB to normalise policy very slowly While ECB President Draghi was upbeat about the economy at today’s press conference, he stated that the desire of some Governing Council members to signal an end to asset purchases is far from a... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Key calls for EMs in 2018 The emerging world is currently expanding at its fastest pace in four years, but we don’t think this will last in 2018. In this Focus we outline our key calls for next year. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Interest rate hikes in Norway still a long way off The Norges Bank left its key policy rate unchanged after its meeting today and brought the date at which it forecasts raising interest rates forward to autumn 2018. We think that it will wait until... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Wholesale price inflation rose to an eight-month high in November. Policymakers put less weight on the WPI measure, but it nevertheless supports our view that the debate will shift towards monetary... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The manufacturing PMI was the highest in nearly four years in December as external demand continues to improve. However, price pressures are only strengthening slowly. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Headline consumer prices increased by a robust 0.4% m/m in November, albeit mainly due to a 7.3% m/m surge in gasoline prices, with core consumer prices increasing by a more modest 0.1% m/m... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus The death of inflation targeting? There are many reasons to think that inflation targeting has had its day. The framework has already evolved to some extent, with central banks adopting “flexible” inflation-targeting and... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan to keep policy loose next year With yields set to rise overseas and concerns that low policy rates may curtail lending likely to linger, speculation about policy tightening in Japan will not subside next year. However, we believe... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) Indian consumer price inflation accelerated to a 15-month high in November, and looks set to rise further over the coming months. Monetary policy is likely to stay on hold in the very near term, but... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Nov.) While CPI inflation was higher than the consensus forecast and the MPC’s expectation in November, it has probably now peaked. As a result, there is little need for the MPC to raise interest rates... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Nov.) Swedish inflation was higher than the Riksbank forecast in November, supporting our view that next week the Riksbank will not announce an extension of its asset purchase programme into 2018. 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
