Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation will push Colombia into further rate hikes Upside risks to Colombian inflation over the next few months mean that we now expect the central bank to raise interest rates by 25bp this month, to 7.75%, with a further hike in August likely... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (June) Last month’s rise in South African inflation, to 6.3% y/y, took the headline rate further above the Reserve Bank’s target range, and both we and the Bank expect it to edge higher over the rest of this... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) June’s rise should be the start of an upward trend in inflation in the wake of sterling’s referendum-related slide. But while inflation will probably breach the 2% target in a year’s time, this... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2) The weak tone of the CPI inflation data for the second quarter probably means that at Thursday’s unusual inter-meeting economic update the RBNZ will hint that it intends to use tighter lending... 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Participation rate will fall further The decline in the unemployment rate to an 11-month low of 6.8% in June, from 7.1% as recently as April, is not as good as it looks. It went down primarily because people gave up looking for work not... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (May) & Final CPI (Jun.) May’s euro-zone goods trade data suggest that net exports will have cushioned the likely slowdown in GDP growth in Q2. Further ahead, we expect the trade surplus to narrow further this year, as slower... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The part-time problem Most of the rise in the share of people working part-time is due to long-term factors that have improved the flexibility of Australia’s labour market. However, some of it is due to weak economic... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) Wholesale price inflation rose sharply in June, and looks set to accelerate further over the coming months. This reinforces our view that there is little scope for further monetary loosening. 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) Indian consumer price inflation held steady in June, but it remains some way above the RBI's target for March 2017. As such, the scope for further monetary loosening still looks very limited. 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation to slow but stay above target We think that Indian consumer price inflation dropped in June, but it is likely to have remained some way above the Reserve Bank’s 5.0% target for March 2017. There is little reason to think that... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (June) Swedish inflation hit a four-year high in June, but it is still low. So although domestic price pressures are rising, the Riksbank may still have to take further policy action. 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (June 16) The Riksbank minutes confirm a readiness to act if conditions deteriorate in the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote. But there are signs of diminishing appetite for further measures from some members. 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What will Russia’s recovery look like? The Russian economy is through the acute phase of its crisis and a recovery should begin over the coming quarters. However, it will be extremely weak. We expect the economy to stagnate over 2016 as a... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Two-thirds majority no reason to cheer The landslide victory for Japan’s ruling coalition in the Upper House election is not necessarily good news for the economy, as lawmakers’ time and energy may now be focused on revising the pacifist... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) Consumer price inflation declined slightly last month, owing to a drop in food inflation. Looking ahead, while we expect inflation in coming months to be close to the rates seen so far this year... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Consumer spending will continue to drive GDP growth The latest evidence suggests that GDP growth accelerated to around 3% annualised in the secondquarter. Furthermore, the rebound in both of the June ISM surveys suggests that this strengtheningin... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
