US Economics Weekly Considerable uncertainty over outlook for inflation With base effects helping to lift headline inflation back above 2% in December, we expect an acceleration in wage growth along with a stimulus-fuelled pick-up in GDP growth to drive both headline and... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Retail Sales (Nov.) Consumer prices increased by 0.3% m/m seasonally adjusted in December, which was enough to push the headline CPI inflation rate back up to 1.5%, from 1.2%, but the big story is still the weakness of... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Retailers’ cost pressures build further Household spending has remained remarkably robust, despite Brexit uncertainty. Admittedly, this looks unlikely to last. After all, while wage growth is picking up, inflation is on the rise too. Indeed... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Trumped up? The world economy looks set to grow more rapidly this year than last. A substantial fiscal stimulus in the US will boost its growth rate, but will have only a limited impact on the rest of the world... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian currencies set to rise Prospects for the Nordic and Swiss economies’ are fairly good, with Sweden and Iceland likely to be the best performers. But the outlook for inflation, and therefore monetary policy, varies... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Headline reflation, underlying stagnation Signs that inflation in both Australia and New Zealand has passed its low point may give the Australian and New Zealand dollars a bit of a boost when the data for the fourth quarter are released this... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan.) Data to mid-January showed another larger-than-expected drop in Brazilian inflation and, barring a sustained slide in the real, we think COPOM is likely to cut the Selic interest rate by another 75bp... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Inflation to end 2017 lower than it started Higher fuel prices will keep South Africa’s headline inflation rate above the Reserve Bank’s target range over the first quarter of this year, but slowing food inflation will bring it back within... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Producer & Import Prices (Dec.) December’s rise in Swiss producer and import price inflation does not change our view that headline consumer price inflation will be barely positive in the medium term. Accordingly, monetary policy... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack External sector won’t fuel a rapid rebound The Australian economy has started to reap some benefits from the rise in key commodity prices towards the end of last year. Most obviously, the trade balance has swung into surplus for the first... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Dec.) With the earlier sharp falls in energy prices now dropping out of the annual comparison, base effects helped to lift headline CPI inflation back above 2% in December, for the first time since mid-2014... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Nov./Dec.) The latest data suggest that while the labour market has lost some of its shine, it remains resilient despite Brexit uncertainty. 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Dec.) While December’s rise in CPI inflation was greater than expected, the increase was driven by components that shouldn’t have too much of an effect on the MPC’s stance on monetary policy. 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices to push CEE inflation higher over Q1 Higher oil prices led to sharp rises in inflation across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) at the end of 2016, and this has further to run in the next few months. All in all, oil prices are likely to... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) Indian wholesale price inflation edged up in y/y terms last month, but dropped in m/m terms as price discounting continued to take place following demonetisation. Nevertheless, further ahead... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) & Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The 0.6% m/m gain in December’s retail sales appears healthy enough, but looking past the headline there are a few concerns about the strength of consumer spending. That headline gain was principally... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
