India Economics Update Monsoon impact on inflation limited July’s consumer price inflation data is likely to show that the headline rate edged down but remained some way above the Reserve Bank’s 5.0% target for March 2017. Suggestions from many commentators... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - RBNZ to signal rates may fall below 2.0% When the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Thursday 11 th August, we expect it to cut interest rates from 2.25% to 2.00% and to confirm that it is willing to reduce rates further. A stubbornly high... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jul.) The much sharper-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in July, to 8.8% y/y, will make it difficult for the central bank to justify any further loosening of monetary conditions. The easing cycle had... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jul.) Japanese households seem unconvinced that the resounding victory of the ruling coalition in the Upper House elections will improve their living conditions in coming months. At least their inflation... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rates in Australia may yet have to fall to 1.0% If it is going to weaken the Australian dollar to help solve its low inflation problem, the Reserve Bank of Australia may have to follow today’s 0.25% interest rate cut to a new record low of 1.5%... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Rates to stay on hold as Rajan heads for the exit Governor Raghuram Rajan has had a penchant for shocking financial markets during his three years at the helm of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), but we doubt that there are any surprises in store when... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rates to reach new record lows We believe that a new era of stubbornly low underlying inflation will prompt policymakers to cut interest rates in Australia from 1.75% now to 1.00% next year and to reduce rates in New Zealand from 2... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weak GDP will give Fed reason to pause Despite the more hawkish language in last week’s FOMC statement, the GDP data have significantly reduced the chances of a near-term rate hike. The economy has been growing at around 1% annualised for... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slower euro-zone GDP growth a sign of things to come We think that the slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 is a sign of things to come. While the UK’s vote to leave the EU won’t be a major drag on the euro-zone, we expect growth to slow further as... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria: Central Bank puts its money where its mouth is Nigeria’s self-proclaimed move to a more “flexible” exchange rate last month was initially a disappointment, with the Central Bank of Nigeria reasserting its grip at N282/US$. Over the last week... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC pauses easing cycle, but further rate cuts loom Slightly stronger-than-expected inflation figures, coupled with the renewed fall in the ruble, prompted the Russian central bank to pause its easing cycle today, but we think inflation should resume... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Preliminary Flash GDP (Q2) & Flash CPI (July) The “preliminary flash” estimate of euro-zone GDP confirmed the message from national data that the economy slowed in Q2. We think that this slowdown in growth is a sign of things to come. 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The bigger picture on inflation Australia’s inflation data for the second quarter provided something for everyone, but the bigger picture is that there is very little price pressure anywhere in the economy. This is why we believe... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Household Spending, Retail Sales, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Jun.) Today’s activity data suggest that Japan’s economy continued to recover last quarter, while the labour market continues to tighten. However, the stronger yen is set to dampen price pressures further... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation in EM commodity producers remains stubbornly high Inflation in a number of EM commodity producers has remained stubbornly high over the past few months. Accordingly, consensus expectations for monetary policy in these countries have moved towards our... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market remains in good health Our econometric model points to a healthy 190,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in July. As a result, the unemployment rate probably edged back down to 4.8%, from 4.9%. 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
