US Economics Update JOLT survey points to tightening labour market The latest JOLT survey suggests that labour market conditions continue to tighten, which should generate an acceleration in wage growth later this year. 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How will the Norges Bank react to the strength of inflation? Inflation in Norway has been much stronger than the central bank forecast in June, so an interest rate cut in September looks unlikely. But we still expect inflation to fall sharply over the next 12... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Inflation headed down as economic imbalances unwind The sharp fall in Ghanaian inflation supports our view that the worst is over for Ghana’s economy. Thegradual reduction of economic imbalances will help inflation moderate over the coming months. 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will wage growth ever pick up? Unemployment has continued to fall steadily in most advanced economies, but there is still some sparecapacity left. Moreover, the link between unemployment and wage growth is weaker than in the past... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) July’s high inflation reading in Egypt, of 14.0% y/y (the same as in June) confirmed that March’s devaluation of the pound is continuing to pass through into higher consumer prices. Against this... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How will the Norges Bank react to the strength of inflation? Inflation in Norway has been much stronger than the central bank forecast in June, so an interest rate cut in September looks unlikely. But we still expect inflation to fall sharply over the next 12... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The increase in Mexican inflation in July, to 2.7% y/y from 2.5% y/y in June, is unlikely to prompt the central bank to raise interest rates again at Thursday’s MPC meeting. But with inflation likely... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) Less rapid increases in food prices dragged down consumer price inflation last month, masking a continued pick-up in broader price pressures. Inflation is likely to edge up in the coming months... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Jul.) The fall in Chilean inflation in July, coming on the back of a recent weakening in the economy, means that interest rate hikes this year are now looking unlikely. 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Growth not strong enough to boost price pressures Weak survey evidence notwithstanding, the economy likely continued to recover in the second quarter, while the labour market has rarely been tighter. However, wage growth remains anaemic and the past... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s labour market is hiding slack Russia’s unemployment rate has hardly budged despite the deep economic downturn over the past 18 months. There does, however, appear to be “hidden” slack in the labour market, one implication of which... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Food prices set to rise after floods Consumer price inflation is likely to have fallen in July, dragged down by a sharp drop in pork price inflation. But we expect inflation to edge up again in the coming months as severe flooding across... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may yet be forced to cut rates below 1.5% The Reserve Bank of Australia used its new Statement on Monetary Policy to suggest that it hasn’t got much appetite for cutting interest rates below 1.5%, although its own inflation forecasts suggest... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jun.) Wage growth rebounded in June, and the headline continues to mask solid gains in hourly earnings. Nonetheless, wages are not growing fast enough to create noticeable price pressures. 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jul.) The larger-than-expected fall in Russian inflation to 7.2% y/y in July suggests that – barring an upside surprise in this month’s CPI figure – the central bank will resume its easing cycle at the next... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
