India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Consumer price inflation dropped in January as price discounting continued following demonetisation. But inflationary pressures are set to build over the coming months, and we continue to believe that... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will policy help or hinder? The response from policy makers is one of the main reasons that the UK economy has so far weathered the Brexit vote well. And there are reasons to think that monetary and fiscal policy can continue to... 13th February 2017 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan.) The rise in Egyptian inflation in January to a 30-year high of 28.1% y/y makes it even more likely that the central bank will raise interest rates at its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. We now... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Future looks brighter for manufacturing A robust rise in manufacturing activity at the end of 2016 and in the output balance of the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey have raised hopes that the sector is getting back onto its feet. Admittedly... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru holds interest rates, but rising inflation set to trigger hikes The Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s decision to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.25% was widely expected and, while the outlook for the economy has deteriorated, we still expect rising inflation to... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Jan.) The further rise in Czech inflation last month, to 2.2% y/y, reinforces our view that the koruna cap will be removed in the coming months. We see the MPC meeting on 4th May as the most likely date for... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Jan.) In January, the Norges Bank’s favoured measure of inflation fell to a 37-month low. We think that it will fall further, prompting the Bank to cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points in the second... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Deflationary threat far from over The Bank of Japan’s preferred measure of underlying inflation fell to a fresh low in December. While the weaker exchange rate and the recovery in commodity prices should result in a rebound in coming... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) The surge in Mexican inflation in January, to 4.7% y/y from 3.4% y/y in December, is largely the result of hikes in regulated fuel prices. Nonetheless, core inflation also continued to rise as a... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to maintain dovish tone for now Recent economic data support our view that the Riksbank will raise interest rates this year. But given the recent appreciation of the krona, the Riksbank is likely to maintain a very dovish tone in... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI is right to turn less dovish Consumer price inflation is likely to have edged down in January as price discounting continued following demonetisation. But further ahead, price pressures are set to build. This was acknowledged by... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Does the US need a strong or weak dollar? We will probably never know whether President Donald Trump really did phone his National Security adviser at 3am to ask whether a strong or weak dollar was good for the economy, but it is a very good... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The drop in Brazilian inflation in January, to 5.4% y/y from 6.3% y/y in December, means that another large 75bp cut in the Selic interest rate is on the cards later this month. Elsewhere, inflation... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation up in January, but rebound unlikely to last A further rise in producer price inflation, which probably hit a fresh five year high in January, is likely to fuel concerns about a pick-up in broad price pressures this year. But we think consumer... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian rates to rise further than many expect The fairly hawkish post-meeting press conference and upwards revisions to the central bank’s inflation forecasts suggest that the Romanian MPC is increasingly concerned about the prospect of loose... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) The further fall in Russian inflation last month, to 5.0% y/y, supports our view that, despite the central bank’s recent hawkish rhetoric, interest rates will be lowered substantially this year. 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
