Europe Economic Outlook Rising political risks threaten growth outlook The European economy appears to have weathered the initial impact of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union reasonably well. However, the vote could yet have important indirect effects by fuelling... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The RBA, inflation and November The inflation figures for the third quarter would need to be much weaker than the Reserve Bank of Australia expects in order to prompt a cut in interest rates to 1.25% at November’s policy meeting... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) Egyptian inflation dipped to 14.1% y/y in September, but this is unlikely to mark the start of a downward trend. Policymakers are edging to closer to an IMF deal, so a fresh devaluation of the pound... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Slowdown in services inflation highlights failure of QQE Recent data suggest that the economic recovery may be a touch stronger than we had been expecting. However, there are no signs that the tight labour market is fuelling price pressures. While the Bank... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The increase in Mexican inflation in September, to 3.0% y/y from 2.7% y/y in August, means that headline CPI is now at the central bank’s target and leaves it on track to move above target over the... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Sep.) The bigger-than-expected drop in Brazilian inflation in September should be enough to seal the deal on an interest rate cut at this month’s COPOM meeting. 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why is services inflation slowing? While the collapse in energy prices over the past two years explains some of the recent decline in services inflation, we suspect that it mostly reflects the sluggish state of consumer spending... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Aug.) Wage growth slowed in August as the bonus payments slumped after the end of the summer bonus season. While growth in hourly wages remains strong, we expect it to fall again in coming months. 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Recovery to grind on Economies across the emerging world have strengthened so far this year and we expect further improvements in the months ahead. But growth is likely to peak in 2017 at rates far below the averages of... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Food prices drive inflation rebound Headline inflation likely rose last month on the back of a pick-up in food prices. But after a near-term rise, we expect price pressures to ease again further ahead. 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Turkey’s economy will struggle The hit to Turkey’s economy from July’s military coup attempt is likely to be short-lived, but even once the impact dissipates, the economy’s large vulnerabilities mean activity will remain sluggish... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Dovish RBI risks stoking inflation pressures Consumer price inflation probably eased in September, which may bolster the more dovish position the RBI adopted at its policy meeting this week. But a looser monetary stance is likely to add to... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic interest rates to be left unchanged until mid-2017 The uncertainty surrounding capital account liberalisation suggests that the Central Bank of Iceland will keep interest rates unchanged for a while longer. But with inflationary pressures set to build... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Q3 growth slowdown won’t be too sharp Both survey and hard data published this month suggest that GDP will grow moderately in Q3, avoiding too sharp of a slowdown from Q2’s upwardly-revised quarterly rate of 0.7%. Indeed, the 0.4% monthly... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The consequences of Turkey’s inflation problem There is mounting evidence that the Turkish central bank’s pursuit of loose monetary policy has caused inflation expectations to become unanchored, risking an upward wage-price spiral. As we explain... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The improvement in consumer confidence in September suggests that the recent surge in the household saving rate is unlikely to continue. Another positive sign is that inflation expectations seem to be... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
