UK Economics Weekly Have we underestimated sterling’s inflation impact? CPI inflation surprised on the upside again last week, largely due to a few components that tend to be more responsive to exchange rate movements. This begs the question of whether we (and many others... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The small decline in the headline inflation rate to 2.0% in February, from 2.1%, was softer than expected, particularly considering higher gasoline price inflation. The bigger story though continues... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The drop in the manufacturing PMI in March is hardly a disaster as the index had climbed to a three-year high in February. More problematic is that the survey points to a renewed moderation in price... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Mar.) Mexican inflation rose to a fresh seven-year high of 5.3% y/y in the first half of March but the details of the data contained some signs that the upward pressure on prices is easing. Nonetheless, we... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation jumps, but no rush to tighten The jump in inflation across much of Emerging Europe last month has shifted the focus onto policy tightening. But in most cases this has been a one-off rise from higher fuel inflation, and there is... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia won’t stay ahead for long The rebound in GDP growth in Australia in the fourth quarter and the easing in New Zealand appear to imply that the neighbouring nations are experiencing a change of fortunes. But we doubt this is a... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Demonetisation impact wearing off The latest economic data for India suggest that the most acute impact from the government’s demonetisation measures has now passed. Both the manufacturing and services PMI readings for February came... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Mar.) Data to mid-March showed another dip in Brazilian inflation and probably give enough cover for policymakers to accelerate interest rate cuts at next month’s Copom meeting. In practice, however, any... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Feb.) Saudi inflation was in negative territory for a second consecutive month in February, but there are signs that deflation may not last much longer. 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Feb.) & Current Account (Q4) The falls in South African inflation last month and in the current account deficit in Q4 (data all released today) support our non-consensus view that the Reserve Bank will lower interest rates by... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Swiss economic outlook improves but deflation still a risk Although Switzerland’s economy registered another disappointing quarter of growth in Q4, expanding by just 0.1% q/q, business and consumer surveys paint a more positive picture for 2017. The KOF... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack South Korea elections: key names to watch Political campaigning in South Korea ahead of presidential elections due on 9th May is now well underway. Given the extent of public anger against ousted former president Park Geun-hye and her ruling... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Public Finances (Feb.) February’s CPI figures have increased the chances of an earlier interest rate hike than markets have been expecting. Meanwhile, the fall in public borrowing was in line with the OBR’s new downwardly... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Inflation still set to dampen real spending growth this year The annual rate of euro-zone inflation may be nearing a peak, but its effects on consumer spending growth have yet to come. With nominal wage gains unlikely to offset higher prices, we still see... 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the MPC right to turn hawkish? While it came as no surprise that the US Federal Reserve pressed ahead and raised interest rates last week, markets were given a jolt by an unexpected split on the UK Monetary Policy Committee, with... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank cuts interest rates, signals further easing Chile’s central bank cut its policy interest rate by 25bp, to 3.00%, and used the accompanying statement to signal that further easing is likely over the coming months. This supports our non-consensus... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
