Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Commodity producers and China drive EM recovery EM GDP is currently growing at its fastest pace in 18 months, with the recovery being driven mainly bystronger growth in commodity producers as well as an upturn in China. According to our GDP tracker... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Oct.) Despite a rise in October, small business confidence still points to stagnant industrial production at best, and the outlook is not any better. 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3) Ignore the larger-than-expected rise in headline CPI inflation in the third quarter, what really matters is that underlying inflation was weaker than the RBA expected. It probably wasn’t weak enough... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Further signs of regional slowdown The past month brought further signs of a slowdown in regional growth in Q3. Turkey is the main culprit. Growth there appears to have slowed to a crawl following July’s coup attempt, which hit... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Commodity prices turning into a tailwind The recent rise in the prices of some key commodity exports will go some way to boosting the national income of both Australia and New Zealand. The surge in the price of coal to a three-and-a-half... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core price pressures remain elevated Much of the focus both before and after the RBI’s decision to cut the repo rate by 25bp (to 6.25%) in early October has been on the sharp fall in headline inflation over the past couple of months. But... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Economy still struggling to shake off its malaise GDP growth does appear to have accelerated in the third quarter but, after a year of below potential growth, the economy is still struggling to shake off the effects of the stronger dollar and the... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Oct.) The increase in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 3.1% y/y from 3.0% y/y over the whole of September, was due largely to a rise in energy prices. While the recent rebound in the... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi inflation dropped to its lowest rate this year in September as food prices fell at a steeper pace and the effect of administered price hikes earlier this year continued to fade. We expect... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The fifth straight rise in the manufacturing PMI in October indicates that firms are dealing well with the headwind from a stronger exchange rate. What’s more, the survey suggests that consumer prices... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Retail Sales (Aug.) The recent softness in core CPI inflation could become a major concern for the Bank of Canada. The Bank was forced to cut its projection for inflation earlier this week in its new Monetary Policy... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct.) Data to mid-October show that inflation in Brazil is continuing to ease, which should provide room for another cut in interest rates at November’s COPOM meeting. 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The mixed and messy labour market While the Reserve Bank of Australia would do well to ignore the recent falls in employment, it will be getting more concerned that the rising share of employees working part-time will keep wage growth... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) September's slightly weaker-than-expected inflation figure supports our view that the SARB will hold its key policy rate unchanged at 7.00% over the coming quarters rather than hiking rates. 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Is the sell-off in UK government bonds overdone? While the pound continues to be the main casualty of the vote to leave the EU, UK government bonds have come under pressure recently. Indeed, the yield on 10-year government bonds has risenby around... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the MPC going soft on inflation? Apparent concerns in the bond market that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has gone soft on inflation look overdone. We expect the forthcoming rise in inflation to be transitory. But if it isn’t... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
