Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will have to lower policy rate further The Bank of Japan’s decision to replace its target for the monetary base with a target for 10-year government bond yields has prolonged the lifespan of QQE. However, it hasn’t improved the near term... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Rollout of GST is edging closer Progress in implementing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) since the bill was passed in parliament in early August has so far been fairly smooth. However, there are still a number of sticking points... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surge in medical care prices is a dilemma for the Fed The big gap that has opened up between the CPI and PCE measures of core price inflation is now largely due to just one category, medical care. The Fed's preferred PCE measure of core inflation is... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Low inflation won’t prevent a euro-zone slowdown Rising inflation may be less of a drag on the growth of euro-zone household spending than we had previously feared. But spending growth is still likely to slow, weakening a key support for overall... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA tweaks its policy agreement Philip Lowe’s first job as RBA Governor has been to emphasise the medium-term nature of the 2-3% inflation target and highlight how the RBA juggles this with its often conflicting objective of... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug. 16) Although core CPI inflation edged higher in August, it has been broadly unchanged this year, suggesting that the Fed doesn’t need to rush to raise interest rates next week. 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Still little inflationary pressure from the labour market Even when the euro-zone economy seems to have performed fairly well, it has still been unable to generate any inflationary pressure. Indeed, despite the reasonably strong rate of employment growth in... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Hitting the target? Average inflation in the G7 is likely be over 2% next year as the impact of past falls in energy prices fades. In the US, core inflation is already close to the target and will probably continue... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Comprehensive policy review should deliver more easing The announcement that a comprehensive assessment of monetary policy would be carried out at the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting has triggered even more speculation than usual about possible changes of... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Aug.) After adjusting the data to strip out the temporary boost from the Census, we estimate that employment fell by around 14,000 in August. While we aren’t too concerned about the outlook for employment... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand holds policy rate, but easing can’t be ruled out The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today, but with growth set to slowand inflationary pressures very low, further easing is likely in the coming quarters. 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) Indian wholesale price inflation rose for the seventh consecutive month in August, and is set to accelerate further over the near term. This supports our view that there is little scope for further... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Inflation targeting – time for a change? The Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand are likely to ignore suggestions that they should lower their inflation targets since that would drive inflation even lower. Targeting nominal GDP growth... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we be worried about low inflation expectations? As euro-zone inflation picks up over the coming months, short-term inflation expectations should rise.But long-term expectations are less responsive to movements in current inflation and are likely... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Aug.) August’s stable CPI inflation rate is a temporary pause in an upward trend that should see it rise above the MPC’s target next year. But prospect of above-target inflation probably won’t stop the... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Aug.) Despite weaker-than-expected Swedish inflation in August, price pressures are set to increase in the coming months. And as higher inflation feeds through to inflation expectations, the Riksbank will... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
