Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to fall by more than most expect The decision by Colombia’s central bank to cut its policy interest rate by 25bp (to 7.25%) caught most off guard but was in line with our expectations. The statement accompanying the decision was... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The headline inflation rate rose to 2.1% in January, up from 1.5%, largely because of higher gasoline inflation. While some of those gains will be reversed in February, the Bank of Canada will be much... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone PMIs consistent with stronger growth Last week’s PMI survey brought some more good news for the euro-zone economy. Accordingly, due to expectations of stronger growth in Q1, we have revised up our GDP forecast for 2017. While the survey... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Feb.) Despite edging down in February, the NIER’s Economic Tendency Indicator still points to a surge in Swedish GDP growth. And with inflation expectations rising far above the Riksbank’s target, the Bank... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Catch-up wage growth is a pipe dream The idea that Australian employees could enjoy a period of “catch-up” wage growth is a pipe dream. It doesn’t stack up in theory and it doesn’t stack up in practice. It’s far more likely that cyclical... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Feb.) Mexican inflation was unchanged at 4.7% y/y in the first-half of February and, along with the rebound in the peso over the past month, this could convince the central bank to keep interest rate on... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack A bad month for Indonesia A number of developments over the past month have cast a shadow over Indonesia’s prospects. The first was the publication of GDP figures for the final quarter of last year which showed a slowdown in... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rebound in inflation gives Fed less wiggle room The rise in CPI inflation to a five-year high of 2.5% in January was principally due to a surge in gasoline prices, which appears to have been partly reversed in February. Nevertheless, with headline... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb.) Data to mid-February showed another big drop in Brazilian inflation which, coming alongside the recent strength of the real, paves the way for a large reduction in the Selic interest rate at tonight’s... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core inflation rises to highest rate since 2014 The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to keep rates on hold and signal the end of its loosening cycle in this month’s policy meeting took many by surprise. But subsequent data showing that core... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Overshoot in business confidence The notable improvement in a number of leading activity indicators in the past month or so is consistent with a sizeable pick-up in GDP growth in Australia. But we remain cautious about the prospects... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update More still needed to lower public debt ratio The surge in nominal GDP since the launch of Abenomics reflects a number of one-off factors whose impact has started to fade. While a smaller budget deficit should keep the ratio of public debt to GDP... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Inflationary pressure rising in Sweden, fading in Norway While inflation fell in both Sweden and Norway in January, the outlook for prices in these countries differs significantly. Consumer price inflation in Sweden fell from 1.7% to 1.4% in January. But a... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan.) Consumer prices in Saudi Arabia fell in year-on-year terms in January as food prices continued to decline at a steep pace and the effects of last year’s subsidy cuts dropped out of the annual... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EC’s optimistic forecasts underestimate key risks In its latest economic forecasts published last week, the European Commission (EC) provided a fairly upbeat outlook for the euro-zone economy, expecting it to sustain its current pace of growth in... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can wage growth keep up with rising inflation? Last week’s labour market and inflation figures have fueled concerns that the impact of rising inflation on real earnings will cause a significant slowdown in consumer spending growth. Indeed, rising... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
