China Economics Update Inflation has peaked Consumer price inflation will probably have edged down further in April following a spike in February that took the headline rate to the highest since 2013. We think inflation will be broadly stable... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) & PPI (Mar.) April’s unexpected fall in inflation partly reflected Easter timing effects, providing some hope that it will prove temporary. But with underlying price pressures subdued, the ECB will continue to... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Apr.) Today’s stronger-than-expected Turkish inflation data will add to fears that the economy is overheating and strengthens the case for the MPC to hike interest rates further over the coming months. 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed on course for next rate hike in June The Fed was never likely to signal a major shift in policy at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting today, with the fed funds target range left unchanged at 1.5% to 1.75% and the accompanying statement... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Treasuries vulnerable even if inflation worries ease More than half of the 80bp rise in the 10-year Treasury yield since last September, to around 3.0% now, can be attributed to inflation compensation. The rest has been guided by a belief that the Fed... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) We suspect that the recent deterioration in consumer sentiment reflects the impact of rising food prices. Either way, the survey still points to a rebound in spending on durable goods. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation outlook remains subdued Inflationary pressures picked up in the first quarter in Australia, with underlying inflation rising to the bottom of the RBA’s 2-3% target for the first time in two years. In contrast, core inflation... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rebound in healthcare inflation a headache for the Fed The rebound in core PCE inflation over recent months in part reflects sharp increases in administered payments for hospital services that will be repeated later this year. A revival in healthcare... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Weaker inflation points to rate cut Today’s inflation figures support our view that policymakers will cut their key rate in July. Meanwhile, the rebate surrounding Kenya’s lending rate cap suggests that the controversial law will be... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Three more Fed hikes this year, ECB and BoJ on hold Despite economic activity slowing in Q1, we expect the Fed to press on with three more rate hikes this year, not least because inflation has been higher than anticipated in recent months. But in the... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Apr.) German HICP inflation dipped from 1.5% to 1.4% in April as increases in energy and food inflation were offset by a fall in the core rate. While the latter partly reflected temporary effects, the... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s easing cycle probably at an end The decision by Colombia’s central bank to cut its policy interest rate on Friday night by 25bp (to 4.25%) probably marks the last move in the easing cycle. We expect the policy rate to be left... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Struggling to reach potential A weakening housing market and the high level of household debt will probably prevent GDP growth in Australia from accelerating above 2.5% in the coming years, while the end of the migration boom may... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR signals rate cuts still on the cards, despite ruble sell-off The sell-off in the ruble caused the Russian central bank (CBR) to pause its easing cycle today, but the dovish tone of the accompanying statement supports our view that rates are likely to be lowered... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update 2% inflation target remains out of reach The Bank of Japan today refrained from providing a concrete timeframe for hitting its 2% inflation target for the first time since Governor Kuroda took over. This highlights that policymakers have... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Mar.) & Tokyo CPI (Apr.) The slump in industrial production last quarter suggests that GDP shrank in Q1. Meanwhile, price pressures have started to moderate again even though the labour market remains very tight. 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
