Japan Economics Weekly Much faster wage growth still needed We wouldn’t read much into the smaller pay hikes for employees of large manufacturing firms that have been agreed in this year’s Shunto wage negotiations. Wage growth for most workers looks set to... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC strikes a more hawkish tone The decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates on hold and the scale of its asset purchases unchanged, at the same time as the US Fed tightened policy again, highlights the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Inflation will undershoot Norges Bank target in coming years The Norges Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged came despite a deterioration in the outlook for inflation. Policymakers remain concerned about the impact of loose monetary policy on the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed hikes rates, but leaves forecasts unchanged As everyone expected following the recent blitz by officials to prepare the markets, the Fed raised the fed funds target by another 25bp today, to between 0.75% and 1.00%, but officials left their... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Feb.) A drop back in gasoline prices restricted consumer prices to a more modest 0.1% m/m gain in February, but unfavourable base effects nevertheless pushed the annual CPI inflation rate up to a five-year... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Rebound in inflation is almost over Headline inflation is now above the target in the US and close to it in the euro-zone and UK. We expect the average inflation rate in advanced economies to be fairly stable at around 2-2½% for the... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Feb.) The further rise in Polish inflation last month, to 2.2% y/y, was driven almost entirely by energy and food price movements, while core inflation remained subdued. Accordingly, today’s data are... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Consumer price inflation accelerated in February for the first time since demonetisation due mainly to a rebound in food inflation. Looking ahead, rising price pressures could prompt the RBI to hike... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.) February’s inflation figures offer the first sign that inflation has peaked. We expect that price growth will weaken this year, but will remain above the CBN’s target. 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb.) After rising to a five-year high in February, Swedish headline inflation is set to ease back in the coming months as energy inflation cools. But with signs that underlying price pressures are rising... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) The rise in Indian wholesale price inflation in February to its highest rate in over three years supports our view that the Reserve Bank of India will have to reverse course and begin hiking interest... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Wage growth picking up Japan’s unemployment rate is the lowest it has been since the mid-1990s and the job-to-applicant ratio is approaching its bubble year peak. Regular wages are rising at the fastest pace in years, and... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Talk of policy tightening will prove premature The Bank of Japan may upgrade its near-term outlook for inflation at its meeting this week. With inflation picking up again, a rising number of analysts now expect the Bank to tighten policy in coming... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Feb.) The larger-than-expected drop in Brazilian headline inflation in February, to 4.8% y/y, from 5.4% y/y in January, was broad-based and reinforces the case for further significant monetary easing over... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Feb.) February’s inflation data revealed that inflation is falling much more quickly than the Norges Bank expected. While activity surveys have strengthened recently, we think that inflation will continue... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would make the RBA raise rates? Although we still believe that the next move in interest rates in Australia will be down, it is useful to consider what would need to happen to prompt the RBA to raise rates. Two scenarios stand out... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
