Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling oil prices will keep inflation subdued for longer The recent fall in oil prices will keep EM inflation close to its current multi-year low for longer, but it won’t trigger a collapse in inflation. 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jun.) The drop in Brazilian inflation in the first half of June to a fresh decade-low of 3.5% y/y, is Brazilian inflation has fallen below the BCB’s central target for the first time in almost seven years... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the rift between MPC members growing? After a surprisingly large split in the vote at June’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, two speeches this week provided further signs of a growing rift on the Committee. Indeed, the fact that Andy... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) Even though the manufacturing PMI fell rather sharply in June, it still points to a robust expansion in industrial output. What’s more, today’s survey suggests that price pressures continue to... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly All Blacks to beat British Lions in economic tests If the relative performance of the economies of New Zealand and the UK/Ireland over the next few years is anything to go by, the All Blacks will beat the British & Irish Lions 2-1 in the rugby test... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Central bankers will stick to 2% inflation targets for now Janet Yellen’s remarks about the case for reconsidering the Fed’s inflation target have generated some attention this week. But in practice, there is little prospect of the inflation target being... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun.) The rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of June probably seals the deal for another 25bp hike in the central bank’s policy interest rate, to 7.00%, later today. But there are also signs that... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway rate cut off the table, but a long way from rate hikes The Norges Bank revised up its forecast for interest rates this year, so a cut now looks unlikely. But while the Bank expects to raise its policy rate in 2019, we think that it will be unchanged until... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack RBI wields new powers The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has started to put to use its new powers to clean up the banking sector. Earlier this month it instructed several commercial banks to begin insolvency proceedings... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (May) Inflation in South Africa ticked up in May, but we still expected that inflation will ease later this year, prompting the Reserve Bank to cut its key policy rate by a total of 50bps. 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Jun) The Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator points to strong and broad-based growth, consistent with an acceleration in wage growth and a pick-up in underlying inflation. 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia ABS House Prices (Q1) The first quarter of this year will probably go down in history as the point at which house price inflation peaked. Policymakers have engineered the slowdown that appears to be underway, but there’s... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slow wage growth underscores need for policy support The latest labour market data paint a positive picture of employment conditions in the euro-zone. Indeed, in Q1 the level of euro-zone employment finally surpassed its pre-crisis peak. What’s more... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC hawks to remain in the minority for a while yet This week, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee came close to voting to tighten monetary policy. At the same time, we saw claims that austerity is now over. It is remarkable therefore that... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Steady as she goes The latest economic data from across the emerging world have been mixed but our EM GDP Tracker suggests that growth has levelled off at around 4% y/y. While China’s growth has now passed its peak... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China awaits damp squib of MSCI inclusion MSCI will announce on Tuesday whether it will include China’s domestically-listed A-shares in its benchmark indices. It has chosen not to in the past on concerns over market access and official... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
