Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Q4 data point to pick-up in GDP growth On the whole, the activity data suggest that GDP growth in the Nordic and Swiss economies has picked up. Granted, Icelandic consumer confidence suggests that growth might have slowed slightly. But it... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q4) The rebound in headline inflation in the fourth quarter of last year has been baked in the cake for some time, so the real news is that underlying inflation hardly budged at all. A continuation of... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada will have strong hand in NAFTA negotiations US President Donald Trump’s inauguration speech, in which he pledged to always put America first, was potentially bad news for Canada. Trump has indicated that he wants to begin an almost immediate... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB sounds inflation warning The hawkish statement by the South African MPC today is likely to focus attention in the markets on the possibility of rate hikes over the coming months. However, while inflation will remain well... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Jan.) The surge in Mexican inflation in the first half of January, to 4.8% y/y from 3.4% y/y in December, was due largely to hikes in regulated fuel prices. But core inflation also rose further as the... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Focus turns to policy tightening The sharp fall in the Turkish lira has forced the central bank to tinker with its monetary policy setup in an effort to shore up the currency, and we think hikes in key policy interest rates loom... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) January’s manufacturing PMI suggests that Japan’s economic recovery picked up pace at the start of the year. What’s more, the weaker yen is fuelling price pressures. 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack America first President Donald Trump’s inauguration speech left no one in any doubt that his administration will pursue trade protectionism aggressively. He argued for putting “America first” and that “protection... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Saudi inflation fell further at the end of last year as the decline in food prices steepened. Inflation is likely to ease a little further in the first few months of 2017, but fresh subsidy cuts will... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Attention turns to state elections Upcoming state elections in India are likely to have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. But perhaps more significant, the outcome of the state elections could be crucial in... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela’s 2016 meltdown among the worst on record Unconfirmed reports suggesting that Venezuelan GDP contracted by a staggering 19% in 2016 would mean that the country experienced the biggest one-year fall in output of any major EM in modern history... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Considerable uncertainty over outlook for inflation With base effects helping to lift headline inflation back above 2% in December, we expect an acceleration in wage growth along with a stimulus-fuelled pick-up in GDP growth to drive both headline and... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Retail Sales (Nov.) Consumer prices increased by 0.3% m/m seasonally adjusted in December, which was enough to push the headline CPI inflation rate back up to 1.5%, from 1.2%, but the big story is still the weakness of... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Retailers’ cost pressures build further Household spending has remained remarkably robust, despite Brexit uncertainty. Admittedly, this looks unlikely to last. After all, while wage growth is picking up, inflation is on the rise too. Indeed... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Trumped up? The world economy looks set to grow more rapidly this year than last. A substantial fiscal stimulus in the US will boost its growth rate, but will have only a limited impact on the rest of the world... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian currencies set to rise Prospects for the Nordic and Swiss economies’ are fairly good, with Sweden and Iceland likely to be the best performers. But the outlook for inflation, and therefore monetary policy, varies... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
