UK Economics Weekly Taking stock, six months after the referendum As well as being the end of the year, it is now six months since the UK voted to leave the EU and so it is a good time to take stock of where we are, what we got right, what we got wrong, and what to... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect in 2017 We expect Japan’s economy to grow by 1% next year. Given how low potential growth is, this should be enough to drive a further decline in spare capacity and to add to price pressures. The Bank of... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC stresses mid-17 exit from koruna cap still likely Despite mounting speculation that the Czech MPC would hint at removing the koruna cap earlier than previously suggested, today’s MPC press statement was surprisingly dovish. We remain of the view that... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone will be back in the spotlight in 2017 In 2016, weak inflation resulted in strong real disposable income growth for consumers, which in turn helped to support better-than-expected real GDP growth. The decent pace of growth, combined with... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Retail Sales (Oct.) The further softening in core inflation in November to 1.3%, from 1.4%, suggests that there is more downside risk to the Bank of Canada’s inflation rate outlook, which is consistent with our view that... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Border adjustment proposal is equal parts genius and crazy The switch to a so-called ‘border adjustment’ system of corporate tax, which was included in the House Republicans’ ‘Better Way’ proposals earlier this year, is beginning to draw more attention in the... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM recovery dependent on China The EM world is now growing at its fastest pace in nearly two years. According to our GDP tracker, EM GDP growth in October reached 3.5% y/y, which is the strongest since January 2015. China has been... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Reform agenda takes off in 2016 2016 will be remembered as the year that Prime Minister Modi finally began to deliver on promises of much-needed economic reform. However, with a number of state elections due to take place over the... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Key forecast calls for 2017 The underlying momentum in the economy remains sluggish and circumstances aren’t likely to improve next year, mainly because of a worsening downturn in housing investment. We expect GDP growth to be... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican inflation set to breach top of target range in 2017 As a result of the recent falls in the peso, Mexico’s headline inflation rate is on course to break through the top end of the central bank’s 2-4% target range next year. While this should prove to be... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation to rise in 2017, but still room for EMs to keep rates low Inflation is set to rise in most emerging economies in 2017 as the drag from lower oil prices continues to unwind. Even so, with underlying price pressures in check, the jump in fuel inflation is... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Mixed performance in Q3, but surveys bode well for Q4 Recent national accounts data showed a marked divergence in quarterly economic growth in Q3, with the Swiss economy stagnating while the Icelandic economy expanded by an impressive 4.6% q/q. In the... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Underlying momentum in economy still sluggish The 3.5% annualised rebound in third-quarter GDP, after the 1.3% contraction in the second quarter caused by wildfire-related disruptions to oil production, is encouraging, but the underlying momentum... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Survey evidence points to solid GDP growth The survey evidence has strengthened considerably in recent months and even though fourth-quarter GDP growth will probably fall back to 2.2% annualised, as the third-quarter spike in exports is... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov.) Saudi inflation fell to 2.3% y/y in November, its lowest rate this year. We expect inflation to settle at 2.0-2.5% in 2017, compared with an average of around 3.5% this year, which should support a... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: More cause for optimism but price pressures grow This week has brought further indications that the Government is leaning towards a soft(ish) form of Brexit and some sort of transitional arrangement. Meanwhile, the economy has continued to hold up... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
