Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing coming sooner than most expect Economic growth in most of Emerging Asia is likely to slow in the near term as weak global demand and high interest rates weigh on prospects. With growth set to struggle and inflation likely to ease... 7th December 2023 · 32 mins read
US Economic Outlook Despite soft landing, inflation rapidly normalising As core inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of next year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting next year from March onwards, with rates... 6th December 2023 · 16 mins read
ECB Watch Bank to set the stage for 2024 rate cuts Policymakers will have no choice but to acknowledge next week that they may achieve their inflation target earlier than they had anticipated. Some may push back against expectations that the Bank will... 6th December 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economic Outlook Stronger start, weaker end to 2024 China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 6th December 2023 · 18 mins read
India Economic Outlook Solid growth in run-up to election India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government spending, we think it will continue to hold up well ahead of next year’s general election. Given also... 5th December 2023 · 19 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Softer landing, but the runway is longer With higher interest rates taking longer to percolate through the economy, we now think the recession will be shallower and GDP growth will stay weak throughout all of 2024. It’s a softer landing for... 5th December 2023 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA is done hiking rates Given the high bar for further rate hikes, we’re more confident than ever that the Reserve Bank of Australia is done tightening policy. That said, there is a good chance that the cash rate will remain... 5th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (November) The unexpected fall in Swiss inflation to 1.4% in November ensures that the SNB will not be at all tempted to raise interest rates in December, despite the Bank’s recent statements to the contrary... 4th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The small rise in Turkish inflation to 62.0% y/y in November adds to evidence that inflation pressures in the economy continue to cool. We think the central bank’s monetary tightening cycle is likely... 4th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Negative rates will end next year Following a strong 2023, GDP growth is set to slow towards potential next year and the labour market will tread water for now. However, with the virtuous cycle between consumer prices and inflation... 4th December 2023 · 18 mins read
US Economics Weekly Despite strong growth, core inflation normalising This week’s modest upward revision to third-quarter GDP growth was certainly eye-catching. It suggests that the US economy is not just surviving the surge in interest rates over the last couple of... 1st December 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMIs edge up, but external demand remains weak The emerging market manufacturing PMIs for November were a mixed bag – although most headline indices edged up, they remained below 50 in over half the countries that we track, largely due to weak... 1st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs don’t alter the weak outlook for 2024 The manufacturing PMI surveys have overstated the weakness in industrial production over the past couple years. But, even taking this into account, November’s PMIs suggest that while global industry... 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE inflation won’t follow euro-zone to target in 2024 Investors increased their expectations for interest rate cuts by the ECB after November’s soft euro-zone inflation print this week, but in parts of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) the latest... 1st December 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Revising our ECB forecast, German fiscal space In light of this week’s data releases we are bringing forward our forecast for the first ECB rate cut to June next year and now think the deposit rate will fall from 4% currently to 3% by the end of... 1st December 2023 · 7 mins read
